Drunkard's Walk Forums

I know there's a Florence thread in General ... but this is pretty much guaranteed to go political.  Oh me of little faith!

Pat Robertson has cast a magic spell — errrrr, I mean, said a prayer invoking Jesus — that he's sure will turn aside Florence as long as enough people have faith.  Break out the thoughts and prayers, everybody!

*****
God made me an agnostic — who are you to question His wisdom?

I don't mind people praying, as long as they keep preparing and are ready to evacuate. After all, having faith does not mean that you can cross a road without looking at both sides first.

What really bothers me is all the problems that have come up in previous evacuations like New Orleans with Katrina, or South Florida with Irma last year. We have to figure out better ways to do it, especially with people who cannot leave on their own.

Alas, Washinton is still in its normal position and engaged in its normal passtime of producing hot air, with the resulting low-pressure system acting like a big welome mat for sturm und drang.

There we go, political!

edit: Also, Silverfang, I love that .sig quote

It will be interesting to see if the American South gets a better response than Puerto Rico did; I'm expecting it will, for both political and non-political reasons. The non-political: mainland USA, so far easier to get relief in from outside the disaster area. The political strikes me as pretty obvious.

I'd say the American southeast is more likely to get a credible disaster response than some offshore territory that aren't even patriotic enough to become a state. /s (No, that is not my actual opinion of Puerto Rico.)

The new advisory has shifted the track into a more southerly direction.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n...s/70006011

There are still expecting "biblical" amounts of rain, though.

@classicdrogn - If you have to move, now its the time.

(09-12-2018, 08:54 AM)classicdrogn Wrote: [ -> ]I'd say the American southeast is more likely to get a credible disaster response than some offshore territory that aren't even patriotic enough to become a state. /s (No, that is not my actual opinion of Puerto Rico.)

True -- But don't underestimate the power of a narcissist to fuck it up if you are not properly subservient.

(09-11-2018, 08:43 PM)classicdrogn Wrote: [ -> ]edit: Also, Silverfang, I love that .sig quote

Thanks. Loving the book. It's basically Scooby Doo with the serial numbers filed off, and with Cthulhu being real instead of a guy in a suit.

(09-12-2018, 10:37 AM)SilverFang01 Wrote: [ -> ]The new advisory has shifted the track into a more southerly direction.
(...)

@classicdrogn - If you have to move, now its the time.

Nah, I'm in the Bridgewater Triangle area, a bit south of Boston. It's only if the gets hooked up along the coast by the Gulf Stream that I'll have a problem, and probably not until the weekend at that. One of the possible tracks on the earlier prediction map did exactly that, but not the most likely even then.

(09-12-2018, 11:16 AM)classicdrogn Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-12-2018, 10:37 AM)SilverFang01 Wrote: [ -> ]The new advisory has shifted the track into a more southerly direction.
(...)

@classicdrogn - If you have to move, now its the time.

Nah, I'm in the Bridgewater Triangle area, a bit south of Boston. It's only if the gets hooked up along the coast by the Gulf Stream that I'll have a problem, and probably not until the weekend at that. One of the possible tracks on the earlier prediction map did exactly that, but not the most likely even then.

Oh. I thought that you lived in the target area based on your earlier comment. A friend of mine is coming to stay with me until the danger passes as he lives in Charleston.

So, if classicdrogn has to worry, then so do Bob and I...

And currently we don't.

(09-12-2018, 10:41 AM)SilverFang01 Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-12-2018, 08:54 AM)classicdrogn Wrote: [ -> ]I'd say the American southeast is more likely to get a credible disaster response than some offshore territory that aren't even patriotic enough to become a state. /s (No, that is not my actual opinion of Puerto Rico.)

True    -- But don't underestimate the power of a narcissist to fuck it up if you are not properly subservient.

The real question isn't whether Hurricane Florence will be handled better than Hurricane Maria and Puerto Rico; it is whether it will be handled better than Hurricane Harvey and Houston.

A more important question: How many people are going to refuse to evacuate and as a result lose their lives?

(09-13-2018, 07:24 AM)robkelk Wrote: [ -> ]A more important question: How many people are going to refuse to evacuate and as a result lose their lives?

I'll be honest, I'm more worried about the people unable to evacuate, be it due to health or economic reasons. There's a lot of people that simply don't have the ability to get out of the way.

On a more pleasant note, apparently a number of animal shelters have had a surplus of people acting as short term fosters for the duration of the crisis.

I'm with Matrix Dragon - people who refuse to relocate made their decision and take their chances, it's the who are physically or financially unable to evacuate that get my sympathy and concern. It is heartening to hear that folks are volunteering to take in critters that would be otherwise caught in the path, too - some of those placements might even become permanent, depending on circumstances.

Welp. Trump's being Trump again:

Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico "did not die". He claims the 3000 figure is a Democratically-engineered attempt to make him look bad, and that he raised "billions" of dollars for relief for Puerto Rico.

(09-13-2018, 09:15 AM)Bob Schroeck Wrote: [ -> ]Welp. Trump's being Trump again

It's an incredible response!

AP: Florence's 'meandering' potential could mean Harvey-like hurricane flooding

This particular page has a live camera pointed at the surf at Kill Devil Hills, NC.


Projected precipitation - 25 cm roughly equals 10":




Projected path of the storm:



Projecting that path further along, it looks like Bob probably won't get wet but I might.

(09-13-2018, 09:14 AM)classicdrogn Wrote: [ -> ]I'm with Matrix Dragon - people who refuse to relocate made their decision and take their chances, it's the who are physically or financially unable to evacuate that get my sympathy and concern. It is heartening to hear that folks are volunteering to take in critters that would be otherwise caught in the path, too - some of those placements might even become permanent, depending on circumstances.

I had understood that buses were being made available to take people to shelters. Was that only in some cities?

Depending on how the evacuations are organised it's quite possible that even if they've transportation away provided at zero cost they've no way to pay for shelter wherever they're brought or transportation back, or they'll lose their jobs if they aren't at their jobs the moment the mandatory evacuation is lifted. And there's no way that's going to happen since it would take several days at minimum just to get the roads clear enough to get everyone back.

Hmmmmm... So, which weather would you rather have - Hurricane Florence or today's weather in Banff National Park?

I'd take the snow, and all I'm dealing with in my area is humidity, not dangerous winds and flooding. Much easier to put on a sweater than to board up windows and so on, and water that stays where you put it and out of where you shoveled it from is also far more convenient.

Is it just me or does that cone of uncertainty look like it's straddling the Appalachians? I would have expected it to be mostly if not entirely east of the mountains.

In August, I spent five days of a week-long Hawaiian cruise avoiding Hurricane Lane which was also a slow moving storm, slower than Florence is currently if I got the metric-Imperial conversion correct. That storm dumped over a foot of water on the Big Island in under twenty-four hours, so there's your benchmark.

Hurricane force winds cannot cross a mountain range. Just FYI. It might be a blob of tropical moisture, but I really doubt you could get much above tropical storm force gusts out there.