Drunkard's Walk Forums

This is the best reminder yet that the economy is a bunch of made up numbers. And not even a good one! How do you get an overflow error like that?

(04-21-2020, 08:57 AM)Matrix Dragon Wrote: [ -> ]How do you get an overflow error like that?

Boundary checking was dropped in order to speed algorithm execution.

Also nobody considered real world demand numbers in exceptional cases and expected demand not to shift meaningfully under any circumstance. This meant no flexibility in supply was needed either, which is convenient.

saw an amusing quote:

"I mean you have to admit it's pretty fucking hilarious that the people who have spent their entire lives stockpiling beans and ammo and publishing newsletters about preparing to shelter in place during a global crisis are the ones having apoplectic fucking meltdowns and storming state capitols in their Walmart tactical because they can't go to the goddamn Cheesecake Factory."

-- Brad Kramer

Meanwhile in the Netherlands:

All restrictions currently in place due to the COVID-19 have been extended to the 19th of May.
All events with a duty to acquire a permit and give notice of their existence have been forbidden until the 1st of September.
Elementary schools will open on the 11th of May. Normal schools will run with half sized classes, special needs education will run at full size (generally those classes are smaller anyway).
Middle schools will open at 1st of June, with all precautions possible to maintain the proper separation between people.
Sporting clubs are still closed. Sporting events are still forbidden. Playing outside will be restricted to an extent to ensure proper separation is maintained.
If you have symptoms of a cold, isolate.

Ireland is defeating the virus.

16,000 cases
8300 recovered
388 new cases
730 deaths total - 44 today.

Rate of new cases is going down.
Rate of ICU admissions are going down
Cases current in ICU going down.
Hospitals never reached capacity

This thing's done.

6 weeks ago we were told it'd likely be over the kilodeath.

If it weren't for nursing homes we'd be having half the death rate.

Lockdown set to end on 5th of May. Mass gatherings will be constrained for a while to come. But it looks like the whole turn off and reboot the economy approach can work.

Current somewhere around 20% unemplyment, with a 10% recession. But otherwise all is well - it's expected to bounce like Misty-May and be back to normal by the end of next year.

I'd be careful with that Dartz. Last I checked the UK has a border with Ireland that is a rather touchy issue and a much worse situation. I wouldn't be surprised by a second wave of the pandemic coming from the UK through Northern Ireland.


That said, looking at the numbers here... 34134 confirmed cases, 9897 hospitalized cases and 3916 deceased as a result of the epidemic. The RIVM does not track the number of recovered individuals. We took a much bigger hit in the Netherlands in numbers absolute and relative (about 17 million inhabitants vs the 10 or so million in Ireland IIRC), and despite us having insufficient testing capacity to work with, so we know we don't and will likely never have the correct numbers for the pandemic.

robkelk Wrote:The day oil was worth less than $0 — and nobody wanted it

tl;dr: There's so much oil available because of self-isolation that the producers can't even pay people to take it off their hands.

^ That's not exactly what happened as Russia and Saudi Arabia got in a price war on March 8 over Russia's refusal to go along with OPEC production cuts, and then Mexico didn't want to sign the eventual deal.  And then the pandemic got started in earnest; demand dropped suddenly.  They've since settled, but there's a huge glut in the market.  It's not that the oil is worthless, it's just that having a place to store the toxic sludge is worth more than the crude oil itself right now.  Thus negative prices.

Anyway, U.S. poison control centers would like to remind you that you do not need to sanitize your vegetables for coronavirus with bleach and vinegar, nor is hand sanitizer a consumable item.  However, taking enough acetaminophen and whiskey together is a quick way to reduce your coronavirus fever down to the ambient temperature of the environment, permanently.

Looks like we're on track in Colorado to begin relaxing the restrictions after this weekend. The curve has been flattened for now. Like many parts of the world, there's been enough of a lack of testing we will never know how many actually got it or were exposed to it. A couple of my friends have suspicions that's what they were sick with in February, but they're both fine. One of them may have been exposed when she went in for breast cancer treatment, and she lives with the other right now, who can only confirm one person having definitely gotten it AFTER the last time he'd actually gone into the office. The hospitals are prepping for a secondary smaller peak, probably sometime around the end of May. I get the impression that we didn't hit capacity, which was definitely part of the goal of shutting things down.

We're going to wait a few more weeks personally before we start thinking of inviting people over.

I'm still counting on much of the year's convention slate being cancelled via rolling "we're not ready for events of that size" (vaccination will likely not be here this year, and herd immunity can't be guaranteed right now). Plus, well, we can't really afford Pinball Showdown, nor do I want to have to deep decontaminate the machines once they've returned home, before they can be reinstalled in the basement.

I think I've mentioned this already, but I haven't put it into a single sentence that can be copied into a reply post on social media. Feel free to use the following as you see fit. No attribution necessary.

If you believe that your faith in Jesus will protect you from the COVID-19 pandemic, please open your Bible and read Matthew 4:5-7 out loud -- and then take Jesus' own words to heart.

It looks like COVID-19 is... persistent. And by that I mean that people who have suffered from the disease and have been cured have also regularly been testing positive for the disease after their recovery. Even for months on end. If that's true, a widespread and thorough vaccination program will be necessary.

what kind of test are they using? If they're testing for antibodies, then the test should come back as positive even after vaccinations are commonplace.

IIRC the Dutch government tests for SARS-CoV-2 DNA in the test samples, which are gathered from the sinus cavity. I would expect that China uses a similar test.

The presence of the virus' DNA would indicate the presence of the virus itself.

It's telling that the infected first test positive, then at some point during their recovery do not, and then later do test positive again.

So many people are baking during self-isolation that the most famous flour manufacturer in Canada is running out ... of bags.

So they're switching from their trademarked bags to plain-white bags. "Pandemic bag" on the left, usual bag on the right.



At least they aren't running out of flour.

Meanwhile in Rochester, one of our FLGS's has announced that they've been informed they can resume no-contact home delivery, and expect to be able go to curbside pickup within a week or two.

Some counties in the Denver Metro are still doing "stay at home" for two more weeks, but in some cases modifying it for no-contact curbside pickup - basically phone and internet orders, with specifically calling for bare minimum staffing to accommodate it, which I read as "if you can get it done with one (or two if same household) then you can do it." And it's still "essential travel only, but if you place an order somewhere, that can fall under essential travel." Even after that, it's still technically a "10 person WITH SOCIAL DISTANCING" restriction, which means we're still not hosting any sort of board gaming except over a webcam.

We drove over to pick up birthday gifts from my folks - masks on both sides and quick hand-off. The asshat driver population hasn't changed, but the relative percentage is higher because, well, the non-asshat driver types are the ones more likely to be taking this seriously enough they're staying home, the asshats are the most likely to be otherwise pushing against the social restrictions.

Apparently Mile Hi Con is talking about the possibility of holding the convention virtually. It's in October, but I'd rather they do that sort of footwork and consideration now, rather than have to set it up at the last minute if the gathering restrictions are still in force by then. Given the way things have been botched so far (any discussion of the specifics of that should be in Politics), it wouldn't surprise me if large gathering restrictions hold that long, and that there's a large percentage of attendees that would prefer to do it virtually even by then.

They're threating to extend the lockdown if people start getting lax with it.

But the tone they struck was like a fucking parent scalding a child and it just rubbed me up completely the wrong way.

(04-25-2020, 05:07 PM)Dartz Wrote: [ -> ]They're threating to extend the lockdown if people start getting lax with it. 

I fully expect there will be those sorts of noises here; I'm frankly amazed that they didn't outright close the state parks when it was clear a lot of people were taking advantage to have impromptu vacations and crowding the parks, including from out of state. Although in a couple of cases they did plow snow after the most recent mountain snowstorms into a couple of parking lot entrances in real problem spots, effectively closing those parks, because there were so many people going to them that people were parking on the roads nearby, creating a new safety hazard under normal circumstances, to say nothing of the circumstances of trying to keep the local health systems under capacity.

(04-25-2020, 05:07 PM)Dartz Wrote: [ -> ]But the tone they struck was like a fucking parent scalding a child and it just rubbed me up completely the wrong way.

To be fair, it's not easy to write such announcements without the exasperation coming through about, "do you really want us to have to shut this all down again because you're not realizing how serious it actually is?" Given that, to my knowledge, there's still been enough issues getting PPE and equipment that there is still a pretty high risk that another peak in infections will overwhelm local health systems, it's even more understandable that tone control is starting to go out the window dealing with the selfish part of the population.

Michigan is still "stay-at-home" at least until 15 May.  And the MAGAts continue to protest.

Ontario's still in essentially a lockdown for another month, too. No right-wing complainers here, though (possibly because we have a Conservative government in Ontario at the moment, so they can't say anything about it being a left-wing conspiracy without making themselves look stupid).

New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia are all making noises about lifting the worst of their restrictions - but those three provinces have flattened the curves and are down to new daily cases in the single- or low-double-digits, and the restrictions they're looking at lifting are on non-essential medical services (dentistry, optometry, chiropractic, and so on). Ontario's curve isn't flattened yet.

Oh, yes: Still alive.

(04-25-2020, 05:51 PM)LynnInDenver Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-25-2020, 05:07 PM)Dartz Wrote: [ -> ]They're threating to extend the lockdown if people start getting lax with it. 

I fully expect there will be those sorts of noises here; I'm frankly amazed that they didn't outright close the state parks when it was clear a lot of people were taking advantage to have impromptu vacations and crowding the parks, including from out of state. Although in a couple of cases they did plow snow after the most recent mountain snowstorms into a couple of parking lot entrances in real problem spots, effectively closing those parks, because there were so many people going to them that people were parking on the roads nearby, creating a new safety hazard under normal circumstances, to say nothing of the circumstances of trying to keep the local health systems under capacity.

(04-25-2020, 05:07 PM)Dartz Wrote: [ -> ]But the tone they struck was like a fucking parent scalding a child and it just rubbed me up completely the wrong way.

To be fair, it's not easy to write such announcements without the exasperation coming through about, "do you really want us to have to shut this all down again because you're not realizing how serious it actually is?" Given that, to my knowledge, there's still been enough issues getting PPE and equipment that there is still a pretty high risk that another peak in infections will overwhelm local health systems, it's even more understandable that tone control is starting to go out the window dealing with the selfish part of the population.

Itis very tone deaf from them. People's tolerance for misery is wearing thing - there's not just physical health from the Covid to think of, there's mental health and emotional wellbeing and that has been wearing thin for a lot of folks. Even an understanding that it is uncomfortable for many would be nice.

Traffic is still at about a fifth of normal levels - and there were measureably more people at shops this weekend buying foodstuffs, and stuff. Irish people are prone to the 'Ah sure it'll be grand' approach to things.

Yeah, I'm not saying it's not tone deaf.

And the restrictions are even wearing on those of us who are ostensibly introverted, I'll admit... even we're acknowledging that we'd like to see our friends again right now. Talking to people on the phone isn't as useful. And I've got a bunch of stuff done up at the house we haven't been able to show some of those friends who are interested.

I am hoping my husband can get a job soonish, that would help us with at least getting the routine back on to something like track.

Joy.? my main computer has decided to Fubar itself.

I start it up and within 5 minutes it freezes, self-reboots, or reboots but freezes mid way thru?

Fun. Luckily I have a tablet.

(04-25-2020, 06:05 PM)robkelk Wrote: [ -> ]Ontario's still in essentially a lockdown for another month, too. No right-wing complainers here, though (possibly because we have a Conservative government in Ontario at the moment, so they can't say anything about it being a left-wing conspiracy without making themselves look stupid).

...

I spoke too soon - there was a demonstration in Toronto yesterday.

The premier called the protesters "yahoos", "irresponsible", and "selfish", and he used those words on-air.

Pretty harsh language for a politician to use.

Not wrong though.