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Old thread is full of sound and fury



May as well start the second thread off with something useful: Presidential Poll Tracker.

Who's ahead where and by how much, according to aggregated polls from all points on the spectrum.

As of this posting, it looks like the swing states are Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Texas, sorted from closest to widest spread of votes - there are 93 Electoral College votes between these five states. 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win.

The GOP would have to beat the current polls by 3.6% to win the Oval Office. Reagan beat the polls by 3.6% in 1980.

(Florida, which the Nicknamer-in-Chief is on record as saying has a cleaned-up mail-in ballot process, is currently showing as "likely" Democrat. Looks like they're continuing the pendulum swing of the last two elections.)
Steve Brannon, Trump’s campaign strategist, was just arrested in Manhattan for fraud.
https://twitter.com/sdnynews/status/1296...87232?s=21
(08-20-2020, 08:46 AM)SilverFang01 Wrote: [ -> ]Steve Brannon, Trump’s campaign strategist, was just arrested in Manhattan for fraud.
https://twitter.com/sdnynews/status/1296...87232?s=21

AP: Former White House adviser Steve Bannon was arrested Thursday on charges that he and three others ripped off donors to an online fundraising scheme "We Build The Wall."

EDIT:
Quote:He is the second former Trump campaign chair to be charged criminally. Bannon as campaign chair succeeded Paul Manafort, who is currently serving a sentence for an assortment of bank fraud and witness tampering charges in home confinement due to COVID-19.
According to some sources, he was arrested by officers from US Postal Service on board a boat off the coast of Westbrook, CT.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics...y/2576990/

Dear 2020 writers: that was a nice touch.
How do key Black swing-state voters view Kamala Harris? It's complicated

One point made in the article is a good one, IMHO: simply being not-white isn't enough to get the "black" vote, because there is no monolithic "black" vote. A platform that doesn't address issues isn't Y2K-voter compliant.
There have been a lot of valid complaints about what the Democratic Party has so far achieved for black voters, and a drive for real progress.  But then people try to say that if Democrats don't show more support, they won't get the votes.  I think the second is not implied by the first -- and this is true even if the person is saying it about their own vote.

There are two main types of voter: those who are willing to compromise to support a party, and those who don't vote so they can say it's not their fault.  They may try to phrase it as "no party supports my values" or "no party has been willing to show me they want my vote", but these are excuses for apathy or ignorance or avoiding a choice.  Perfect is never on the ballot.

In this election, black Americans have a choice.  They can either vote for the guy who runs with African-American running mates and occasionally just doesn't get it on race because he's a white grandpa. Or they can vote for the guy who still wants to send five exonerated black men to the gallows, sends in secret police to break up their protests, and opened concentration camps for brown children.  Or they can tell their children and grandchildren that when the first black woman was on the national ballot, they did nothing.

Quote:Steve Bannon charged...
Every time I hear about USPIS, I think about The Detour and the Javert-ish postal inspector character.

(08-19-2020, 06:15 PM)robkelk Wrote: [ -> ]May as well start the second thread off with something useful: Presidential Poll Tracker.

I like this one, the vote swing feature is nice. (A swing of +3.0R would throw the election to the House of Representatives.) If you want to dig more into the data, the specific state polls, and how good pollsters are, check out the Poll tracker on Five Thirty-Eight.

Finally, I'm thinking of taking up the offer in Rob's signature.  If Trump wins, there really won't be anything left here worth saving. Not right away of course, but it's probably worth leaving before they start requiring exit visas, you know?  Might be worth checking out Europe too, I have a few work contacts over there.  (I also have a friend who knows a Taiwanese cabinet member, but I doubt that connection would be more useful than a job offer.)
(08-20-2020, 07:34 PM)Labster Wrote: [ -> ]In this election, black Americans have a choice.  They can either vote for the guy who runs with African-American running mates and occasionally just doesn't get it on race because he's a white grandpa. Or they can vote for the guy who still wants to send five exonerated black men to the gallows, sends in secret police to break up their protests, and opened concentration camps for brown children.  Or they can tell their children and grandchildren that when the first black woman was on the national ballot, they did nothing.

So, the same choice as Asian-Americans, or Levantine-Americans, or Native Americans, or Latino-Americans, or white Americans...


(08-20-2020, 07:34 PM)Labster Wrote: [ -> ]Finally, I'm thinking of taking up the offer in Rob's signature.  If Trump wins, there really won't be anything left here worth saving. Not right away of course, but it's probably worth leaving before they start requiring exit visas, you know?  Might be worth checking out Europe too, I have a few work contacts over there.  (I also have a friend who knows a Taiwanese cabinet member, but I doubt that connection would be more useful than a job offer.)

Taking this part to PMs.
For centuries the USA has been a net importer of population. It'll be interesting to see if they can cope with being a net exporter.
First: Thank you Rob for starting the new thread.

Second: Bannon was a Campaign strategist, i think he made it as far as the transition team, but didnt get any further than that due to issues, (pick your flanderizing as to what the issue was). Now as far as the fraud, don't know, but the media seems to be trumpeting this a bit louder than say, Jeffrey Epstein's capture and who he was connected to, or that the opticals, (note i'm not saying facts, just that IT LOOKS LIKE) Biden is using Hunter to pull an LBJ

Third: During his speech, Biden talked about the hate and discontent, the darkness and how he'll "bring back the light" as President. I find this an interesting perspective considering that its the Democrat run cities that are having the RIOTING and NOT dealing with ANTIFA

but i'm just a conservative and a Trump supporter so, not like he gives a flying fuck what i think
It could, of course, be that the people with the most grievances with the police services would be the most likely to vote democrat.

Whether one approves of Law and Order is inconsequential to the fact that some people feel Law and Order applies unfairly against them compared to others it should apply to,
True, Trump gives not a flying fuck about what you think Rajvik.

And Trump has an interesting relationship with the concepts of Law and Order, given his behaviour during this term. And before, let's be fair.
Hazzard i was talking about Biden, but in all honesty Trump probably doesn't give a damn about what i think either. the flip to that is that i agree with his platform more than i ever would Biden's given what Biden has done in his past politics
The Democratic National Convention happened, this time converted to a made-for-TV spectacle. It's gotten pretty good reviews in its presentation, except from people who didn't like the message, or were basically butthurt Bernie Bros. But the end result is that we may never go back to the boisterous floor meetings, now that we had an excuse to change our previous way of doing things.

The theme of the convention was grief. Which is a pretty odd thing for a political party, but it worked here. Grief over Beau Biden, who forged the relationship between the Harris and Biden before he died. Grief over the people who died of coronavirus, and the thousands of families left behind. Grief over the loss of democracy in our country. And without the crowds and cheers to tell us what to think, it was like processing loss with our friends and family.

So, let's see what the Republicans give us this week. Or, let's not see. We can hit Trump where it really hurts him: the ratings.
(08-23-2020, 03:18 PM)Labster Wrote: [ -> ]The Democratic National Convention happened, this time converted to a made-for-TV spectacle.

Welcome to how Canadian parties have been choosing their leaders for over a decade now. Nice to see you catching up with the rest of the world... Smile

(Which reminds me that the Conservatives are choosing a new leader today. (goes and looks) Ballot-opening machine malfunction causes 90-minute delay in Conservative leadership results. Of course...)
Well, so far the GOP convention has already broken up a family, and it hasn't even started.

Claudia Conway says she’s ‘officially pushing for emancipation’ -'My mother’s job ruined my life.'

This is the daughter of White House aide Kellyanne Conway and Lincoln Project cofounder George Conway -- which already sounds like a dinner table I wouldn't want to sit at.  Well, their daughter Claudia is a liberal.  I guess Kellyanne's planned convention speech was the last straw.  The parents are both leaving their jobs now.
Never-Trumper Jennifer Rubin wrote a column about the Republican convention getting off to a bad start. 
Quote:To sum up, the Republican Party has dropped any pretense of a policy platform, throwing its lot in with a racist, xenophobic and compulsively dishonest man who creates chaos and dysfunction and is the subject of multiple investigations relating to his finances. Many decent Republicans are abandoning him in favor of his opponent. This is not five-dimensional chess. It’s a multicar pile-up.

One of her readers, using the handle AlexanderTheGoodEnough, pointed out a hilarious GOP "self-own":
Quote:This year, the (R)s DO in fact have a remarkable platform. You've just gotta read some of it! The lazy, incompetent GOPigs have adopted as their 2020 platform the entire 2016 platform verbatim. Unchanged. Obama was president in 2016, so the official 2020 (R) platform includes several choice bits such as:
Quote:The current Administration has exceeded its constitutional authority, brazenly and flagrantly violated the separation of powers, sought to divide America into groups and turn citizen against citizen. The President has refused to defend or enforce laws he does not like, used executive orders to enact national policies in areas constitutionally reserved solely to Congress, made unconstitutional "recess" appointments to Senate-confirmed positions, directed regulatory agencies to overstep their statutory authority, and failed to consult Congress regarding military action overseas. He has changed what John Adams called "a government of laws and not of men" into just the opposite.
No joke, that's a direct quote from the 2020 Republican Party Platform and can I ever agree with it!

-----
I'm a very forgiving person ... on Lord Vader's terms.  "Apology accepted, Captain."
The Republican convention had Gavin Newsom's ex-wife Kimberly Guilfoyle give a speech at high volume, saying what a terrible job Gavin is doing as Governor of California. We've turned into a state of crime, heroin needles on the streets, and rolling blackouts.

The next day, when I was out walking my dog, I noticed something else in the gutter: a paperback copy of a Robert Jordan book. The Republicans don't even know how bad we have it here.
Peter Navarro - the Nicknamer-in-Chief's trade advisor - says a conservative government "should have been thrown out of office".

Yes, he insulted a military partner for the act of sending troops to fight and die in a US-lead military operation.

So, tell me again why other countries should raise military spending to a level that His Orangeness wants, if this is the reaction we're going to get when we do?
That's the reaction you're going to get regardless of whether or not you raise your military spending.
we might not be able to vote in your election, but I think we've made our opinion known... Trump Hotel in Vancouver closes as company files for bankruptcy
(08-26-2020, 11:51 PM)Labster Wrote: [ -> ]The Republican convention had Gavin Newsom's ex-wife Kimberly Guilfoyle give a speech at high volume, saying what a terrible job Gavin is doing as Governor of California.  We've turned into a state of crime, heroin needles on the streets, and rolling blackouts.

The next day, when I was out walking my dog, I noticed something else in the gutter: a paperback copy of a Robert Jordan book.  The Republicans don't even know how bad we have it here.

I never followed up on the GOP convention until now. But her full-volume speech was emblematic of the whole convention, where no party platform was adopted aside from assent to the Presidential family's prerogative.  Trump claimed he would protect us from the dangers the Democrats would bring, in front of a packed crowd of untested, unmasked, adoring supporters and superspreaders.  It was, in short, a tale told by an idiot: full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Labster Wrote:So, let's see what the Republicans give us this week. Or, let's not see. We can hit Trump where it really hurts him: the ratings.

We did it, everyone!  Of particular note to me is that VP candidate Kamala Harris not only trounced her counterpart, but that she nearly had the same ratings as Trump himself.  To me that answers the question of whether the vice presidential pick matters.
(08-29-2020, 02:51 PM)Labster Wrote: [ -> ]... in front of a packed crowd of untested, unmasked, adoring supporters and superspreaders. ...

CNN: Republican convention in Charlotte tied to 4 cases of Covid-19
That was quick.
If you read the article, you'll see that these were people who tested positive when they showed up at the convention and were sent home. Apparently, about a thousand tests were administered, but I'm not clear on how many people were actually there.
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