"Moscow is silent."
When the Berlin Wall started to come down, that's what a young KGB officer named Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin found himself faced with, as the great Soviet Union began to crumble apart around him. And he vowed himself to undo the tragedy of the end of empire, "the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century," as he called it.
So it is that we find ourselves at the end of the massive rout of Russian armies by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, where essentially the whole of the Kharkiv oblast was liberated. There are of course still pockets of resistance, but by and large the people seem quite happy to be liberated based on every video I've seen. And Kharkiv had a decent percentage of Russians too.
The Russian reaction to this has been telling. Moscow is silent. The vatniks have gone from praising the special operation to lamenting it in mere days. And the only one nominally in authority commenting on the war at all is Ramzan Kadyrov, who never met a camera he didn't like, and he's talking about the changes that need to be made so Russia can start winning. But Putin is walking in Gorbachev's footsteps. Putin has canceled all meetings with the Ministry of Defense and with defense contractors, and is avoiding everyone.
How could this happen? Come on, with that Zelensky? How could this common politician lie so effectively about where the main operation would be? How could an actor come up with a plan to deceive? If only these questions had obvious answers to Russians, they would definitely be mad at their leaders.
Zelensky played the big man, ordered his army in public to take Kherson. Russians just didn't understand how that could possibly be a ruse. He even sent most of the HIMARS there, playing his trump card. Russia's president ordered the takeover of the remainder of Donetsk, and they are damn well going to do it, because it's an order! Could you imagine embarrassing the fearless leader by not doing what he said? Russian army can't.
Until they saw a whole ton of them coming, and they ran faster than Sir Robin. Apparently there was nothing solid behind the front lines. No second defenses, no fallback trenches, no reserves. There are so many POWs that the Ukrainian army doesn't know what to do with them. Zelensky doesn't need ammo right now, he needs a ride! Or lots of buses.
Notably the Russian army is still trapped near Kherson. The offensive at Kherson looks like it is also real, though perhaps not the main focus of the past week. The situation is still precarious for the Russian army, and they'll be demoralized by news of losses in the North.
Russia is apparently still committed to assaulting Bakhmut and Avdiivka, as part of the original plan to capture all of Donetsk by, uh, Thursday. Given that Izium has already been lost, that objective cannot be achieved. Their lines are falling apart, but eh, gotta take these small towns, because that's what the orders are.
To get an idea of the scale of the retreat,
here's an image of the current front, and here's
an animation from the last week. Both are from the ISW, who tends to be conservative about reported advances -- they wait until OSint videos can be geotagged. Anyway, it's a huge victory.
--
Ukraine retakes at least 3000 km²
-- Ukraine government, after the fun of last week, has now asked people to kindly go back to not sharing videos about troop movements, because that worked well last time.
-- Not looking forward to new reports of war crimes around Kharkiv and in Izyum.
-- Russians are regrouping on the other side of the Oskil River in the northern axis.
-- There was a report of Ukraine retaking Donetsk Airport. It's not as critical as it sounds, since no one has air superiority, but it does means that Ukraine has now retaken some territory lost in 2014.
-- Thanks to the rapid unplanned backward advance of the Russians, Russia has now "donated" more artillery and armor to Ukraine than France and Germany.
-- A lot of this is in working order. I saw
a video of a mobile radar truck where it the equipment looked in pristine condition, abandoned on the battlefield. I'm sure USA wants a looksie inside.
-- Old news:
is Ukraine using black magic and sorcerers to win
-- Russians holding on in Lyman, though Ukrainians have crossed the Lyman alpha line.
-- Russians fleeing Svatove in Luhansk, too.
-- Video:
Ukrainian soldiers tear down a Russian propaganda billboard. Before it comes down, it says "We and Russia are one people." Right underneath the top level, they uncover this poem:
The Caucasus, by Taras Shevchenko Wrote:And glory, mountains blue, to you,
In ageless ice encased!
And glory, freedom’s knights, to you,
Whom God will not forsake.
Keep fighting — you are sure to win!
God helps you in your fight!
For fame and freedom march with you,
And right is on your side!
-- I'm pretty sure this scene will be in the movie of the war.
-- Like everything, Russia just puts a coat of nationalism on top and claims it was theirs all along.
-- Here, have
a bit of Zelensky today:
Zelensky, on Telegram Wrote:Do you still think we are one people? Do you still think you can scare us, break us, force us to make concessions? Don't you really get it? Don't you understand who we are? What we stand for? What we are all about?
Read my lips: Without gas or without you? Without you. Without light or without you? Without you. Without water or without you? Without you. Without food or without you? Without you.
Cold, hunger, darkness, and thirst are not as frightening and deadly for us as your friendship and brotherhood. But history will put everything in its place. And we will be with gas, light, water, and food... and WITHOUT you!
-- Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost its external power supply, but then regained it. -- Afterward, it has taken its last of six reactors from startup mode (low power) to all the way off.
-- This does not mean it is safe. It is in fact very hot still -- on-site diesel engines and grid power supply must cool the plant until it cools down, operating water pumps. If both electricity and fuel supply become unavailable, it might be safer to turn it back on.
-- Meanwhile, Russians use missiles to shut off power delivery to Kharkiv because they're giant jerkfaces.
-- Just to the north of Kharkiv and across the border, anxiety continues to increase in Belgorod. Power delivery seems to be having some problems there, too.
-- Annexation referenda have been indefinitely posponed this time. Russians have trouble sticking to dates, offending Germans even more.
-- Belarus will assist Russia any day now...
-- But seriously, Lukashenko looks pretty smart now. At least, nominally having his own country, he has some outside perspective and can tell Putin, if not "no", then "not yet".
-- And by now, the frontline of the war is far from Belarusian territory.
-- Russian TV starts looking for non-Putin people to blame.
-- Denis Pushlin, head of Donetsk People's Republic,
has gone missing. Some reports said he resigned? Maybe he fell out a window?
-- Chinese people start making fun of Russian military online.
--
Crimean Tatars dream of their homeland's liberation
-- I'm not them, but if I were India I would really be looking into alternate arrangements for a defensive alliance right now. (And keep buying cheap gas right now.)
-- Russia considers peace talks; one Ukr security council official calls for unconditional surrender and demilitarization of Russia. Hey, why does this seem familiar?
-- Stupid democracies value weakness and diversity. Russia values strength. But what happens when the government starts showing weakness? We're about to find out.
--
Deputies in 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a statement demanding that Putin resign.
-- Before the war, Putin went to Greece, visited Delphi. He asked the oracle if his war would be successful. Pythia said, "If you go to war now, you will be renowned as the man who rent a great empire asunder." Time to break up the USA, right?