'Trade wars are good, and easy to win,' Trump tweets

[hazard]

America can reclaim a good chunk of it if it's clear that the current administration (and the Republican support) are an aberration, especially if the results of the 2018 midterm election cycle is overwhelmingly a rebuke.

I'm not hopeful of this happening.

[DHBirr]

And the G6+1 summit turned into a right mess, with Trump insulting, mocking and threatening allies, then running off to praise Russia and North Korea. Good Grief, America is burning through goodwill and trust at a shocking rate.

I think past tense is what you want, Matrix Dragon.  The U.S.A. HAS burned through ALL foreign goodwill and trust, and there's none left.  I couldn't even really blame France or the U.K. — much — if they decide a rogue state with such a developed nuclear arsenal can't be permitted to exist, and drop a decapitation strike on Washington D.C.  I hope the attack comes after my niece has graduated from Georgetown University next May and left the vicinity of ground zero.

hazard wrote:
America can reclaim a good chunk of it if it's clear that the current administration (and the Republican support) are an aberration....

 
You're an optimist, hazard.  It must be a nice feeling....

As an apparent New Zealander, judging by the screen name "Kiwicomments," posted in response to a 4 December 2017 news article:

America will never get back its crrdibility. Commentary indicates that everything will be fine when it gets rid of its racist, sexist, lying, corrupt President. What is glossed over here is that AMERICANS VOTED HIM IN. And that Republicans continue to uphold his values. The only conclusion to be reached by the rest of the world is that America’s culture has changed beyond all recognition. Democracies outside America reject the ‘new normal’ values shown by American voters, republicans and enablers. Other democracies now reject and revile you. Having the true American identity revealed by its voters had been startling to the rest of the world. But it has moved on. When will America realise that it is now and in the future globally powerless and reviled. The administration is merely a mouthpiece for those who voted for it. Hard to hear but America, you are no longer a player on any stage but your own.

"...now and in the future globally powerless and reviled."  Yeah, the only power we have left is to threaten with our nukes ... just like North Korea, except we've got more of them, and better delivery systems.  Damn.

-----
I'm a very forgiving person ... on Lord Vader's terms.  "Apology accepted, Captain."

[hazard]

I have two options; I believe that no matter how bad it is now the world can improve (and while there's been many setbacks the evidence does overwhelmingly support that idea in the long term) or I can be crushed under the world being lost and nothing can be done to save it.

And I refuse the latter.

Make no mistake, I'm not an optimist. I don't believe this is the best world that could be. But I do believe it can be better.


The USA can recover its credibility. It's just not going to be easy. And, perhaps, I will lose that incessant feeling that I've had since my teens that the USA is like a middle class family desperately trying to pretend it's an upper class one without understanding a thing about being classy.

But Trump is a load that the USA will be carrying for decades in the future, and future presidents (Republican especially) will be viewed with great suspicion by other nations.

[Labster]

Back on the topic of trade:

In recent years, the trade deficit led some misguided politicians to call for protectionism, warning that otherwise we would lose jobs. But they were wrong again. In fact, the United States not only didn’t lose jobs, we created more jobs than all the countries of Western Europe, Canada, and Japan combined. The record is clear that when America’s total trade has increased, American jobs have also increased. And when our total trade has declined, so have the number of jobs.

Part of the difficulty in accepting the good news about trade is in our words. We too often talk about trade while using the vocabulary of war. In war, for one side to win, the other must lose. But commerce is not warfare. Trade is an economic alliance that benefits both countries. There are no losers, only winners. And trade helps strengthen the free world.

Yet today protectionism is being used by some American politicians as a cheap form of nationalism, a fig leaf for those unwilling to maintain America’s military strength and who lack the resolve to stand up to real enemies — countries that would use violence against us or our allies. Our peaceful trading partners are not our enemies; they are our allies. We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends — weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world — all while cynically waving the American flag. The expansion of the international economy is not a foreign invasion; it is an American triumph, one we worked hard to achieve, and something central to our vision of a peaceful and prosperous world of freedom.

Emphasis mine.  Just a reminder that Trump is theoretically a member of the same party as President Reagan was.  In the long, long ago of 2012, Reagan was still effectively a Republican saint.  And the funny thing is, I agree with every sentiment Reagan expressed above.  And I probably have have believed it since high school, despite voting Democratic.  Free trade was never a partisan issue until now.

[Matrix Dragon]

In war, for one side to win, the other must lose.

It's not just a Trump thing, or a Republican thing. It's an attitude we're seeing more and more from a lot of big companies. Having some of the money is unacceptable, they must have all of it. It leads to a lot of short sighted, often blatantly greedy decisions, blatant disrespect for the customers, and the larger companies usually end up cannibalizing themselves, shutting down the parts that were bringing in good profits because they made unacceptable demands of them and thus declared them 'failures'. We're seeing it in action with the current US administration, and it's just as messy as ever.

[Rajvik]

alright, i'm going to say something here and try and be as dispassionate as humanly possible in doing so.

When you import 90% of your necessary metals, first because it was cheaper, and then because your infrastructure for making the necessary materials has left the country, that is a security risk. You are then dependent on other nations, yes, even allies to supply possibly necessary materials, and if they don't agree with your politics they have the ability to cut you off from those necessary supplies at THEIR whim.

That we don't actually get this all from CHINA i understand, but like OPEC does with oil, the Chinese have undercut steel and aluminum prices so much that they drove the majority of US steel manufacturers out of business or at least out of the country. I know Mexico is simply importing Chinese steel and reselling it to the US, the argument is that Canadian and EU suppliers have been doing the same by Trans-shipping through places like Vietnam.

What Trump SEEMS to be trying to do is two fold;
1-Make the US economy self-sustainable by limiting the NEED for imports of various materials except as maybe raw-bulk materials. What my reading of the economy of the last almost 50 years is a slide away from manufacturing to a service based economy. (Basically it seems to me that we've been being coerced into becoming the sales clerk and beurocrat class of a world government)
2-Through performing the first act, creating jobs that allow people to spend money to bolster our economy without building up other economies, (friendly or not) allowing us to reinforce that independence from the World market.

Let me be blunt, Unions have destroyed several industries in the US, most notably the electronics industry. Most of us haven't noticed it because it happened before a lot of us were born, or else when we were really young. Find a Television or a computer that says "Made in the USA" on all its parts. You can't because the only thing we seem to make anymore is silicon chips in specialized factories in California. (OK, there are other places in the US i'm sure, but California is the most famous for it). The big one hits and Cali goes sliding into the ocean, how long is it going to take for that industry to be rebuilt. Under standard Capitalism, it likely wouldn't be as it would be cheaper to buy from overseas and ship to the US at that point. Reality is that because it is an industry that is needed by the defense department for various equipment, at least two new facilities would be built, probably in the district of whichever congress-critter had the most pull at the time. But i digress, back in the 70's and early 80's you could find things like TV repairmen, (used here as a general, non-sexist label) who you could either take a TV to to have it repaired, or else some would come out to your house to do the work. By the 90's there were practically none, and this was for two reasons, first the Union, (i forget which one actually covered this, they are out of business now anyway i believe) required repairmen to charge so much for repair, (or build in the US) and the cost to replace one got so cheap, that where TV's were concerned we just threw a broken one away and replaced it with a new one. It helped that the new ones were able to use new features like easily hooking into VCRs and other electronics, and then the flatscreen revolution occured and no one can even work on those really. You're required to toss them as everything is solid state and Liquid Crystal Display.

sorry i rambled a bit there. The point is that by getting the US's steel industry handling our steel needs instead of importing steel, we will be better off as a nation in the long run. In the short term, yeah its gonna suck, but like with oil and natural gas drilling, being independent is much better.

[hazard]

Here's the problem Rajvik; had Trump brought this up in, well, basically any of the NATO and G7 meetings, or just through the State Department there could've been a unified effort to break western dependence on Chinese steel and and other goods.

Trump's entire foreign policy appears to be based on the idea that the US has no friends. And when he took office, that wasn't true. Now? Now he's making it true. And if the last 50 years have shown us one thing, it's that a nation with friends has a stronger position than one without, especially economically.

[robkelk]

...
sorry i rambled a bit there. The point is that by getting the US's steel industry handling our steel needs instead of importing steel, we will be better off as a nation in the long run. In the short term, yeah its gonna suck, but like with oil and natural gas drilling, being independent is much better.

Which is why you've been buying up Canadian steel mills, closing them, and re-opening them in the USA over the last two decades.

Yes, you have. Go look for yourself.

If this was really about national security, you would have done more about national security in those two decades. Let's not pretend that "national security" is what's driving this trade spat.

[Dartz]

Is it possible to put a sort of export tax on any attempt made by Google or the like to repatriate money to the US - like transfer payments from Google Ireland to Google US or something?

That seems like it might get them far more riled than just taxing Harleys. Nobody buys fucking Harleys anyway. But they are bitching about that money....

[hazard]

It would be if it wasn't for there being a considerable number of laws about things like banking fees. Currency exchange fees might be another option, but, well...

[robkelk]

BBC News: G7: Fact checking Trump's tweets about trade

[Dartz]

Who didn't see this coming...
We want your jobs, your taxes and your motorcycles.

Harley Davidson moves production to the EU


That's some way to win the Trade War that.

[classicdrogn]

Actually, Trumpty Trump is a closet nerd - it's just that his favorite genre is cyberpunk, and the world wasn't heading enough in that direction on its own so he decided to try to give things a little push.

[DHBirr]

The US ambassador to Estonia, a career diplomat, has resigned over Trump's latest anti-EU rant.

A comment by someone calling himself schwann, posted on Yahoo! about a different article on this resignation, said:

An ambassador has to be an American patriot. To be a patriot means obeying Our Leader Donald Trump. Obey Trump! Trust Trump! Love Trump!

Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Führer.  It'd be nice to think schwann was indulging in satire, rather than genuine goosestepping ... but I no longer have that much faith in the American people.

[robkelk]

Sanctions against the POTUS, or the "blue" "red" states?

I've already decided to spend the extra money and buy Philippine pineapple juice instead of Florida orange juice for my breakfast drink while the tariffs are in effect. (I like having some pulp in the juice, which we just don't get in apple juice any more.) Similarly, Nova Scotia rum is replacing Kentucky bourbon in my drinks cabinet.

(EDITed because I got the colour wrong. The USA does this thing in reverse as far as Canada is concerned.)

Since I haven't said this yet, I should make this clear: I have no enmity toward the people of the USA. Your President has made it clear that your country does not want my country's money, so I am being polite and accommodating you in that.

Our countervailing duties go into effect tomorrow. We're targeting items made in "red" states (you vote for him, you get the consequences) that have easily-sourced replacements. A large fraction of the funds raised this way will be going straight into the unemployment insurance system. A smaller fraction will be spent on re-engineering the steel and aluminum product supply chains so that items don't need to cross the border multiple times (and be subject to multiple tariffs) during the manufacturing process.

As for personal measures (the "home front" in this trade war): I've found a grocery that stocks orange juice from Mexico, so I don't need to switch to pineapple juice and I can help support an ally in this war. I've already switched from Heinz ketchup to a locally-made brand, and the flavour difference is noticeable - I'm staying with the local brand even after this mess is finished one way or another, even though it costs more and I need to drive 45 minutes out of my way to get it. And I've never knowingly bought maple syrup produced outside of Ontario and Quebec, but I'm stopping purchases of maple-flavoured items that don't specifically say they're made with Canadian maple syrup.

[robkelk]

This could be the final nail in the coffin: Mid-Continental Nail has already laid off 12% of its workforce because of the steel tariffs

And when I say "final nail in the coffin", I mean that literally. You might need to find some other way to hold coffins together... or purchase Chinese nails instead of nails made in the USA.

I think if things continue like this, there won't be any nail producers left in the United States.

[robkelk]

Trump wants a show with NAFTA, not a deal with Canada "NAFTA negotiations aren't about trade. They're politics."

Perhaps it's time to consider the possibility that none of this drama is actually about NAFTA, that it's never been about NAFTA. Likewise, it's not about the border wall, either, or the Mexican drug dealers or the travelling Muslims, MS-13, or the migrant kids now holed up in converted Walmart, some separated forever from their families.

America has legitimate concerns on all these files: crime, illegal immigration, global trade. But all mass movements require common enemies and outrages by which to galvanize their supporters.

That's what is so frustrating about President Trump. It's not that he lies so promiscuously. It's that, like the best liars, he knows to spike his outrages with a touch of truth.

The Americans do have some fair complaints about NAFTA. For example, our supply management system does make it difficult for U.S. egg and dairy producers to sell here — to the detriment of both our countries. But Donald Trump isn't the guy who is pointing out America's problems because he is trying to fix them.

Donald Trump is the guy trying to exploit those problems.

Trump doesn't want a deal on NAFTA. He wants a show.

So, yeah - you've got a Balseraph in the Oval Office, and you put him there.


Why Trump's trade war makes sense — if you're Trump "If the U.S. escalates its trade war, the rest of the world, starting with Canada, will be collateral damage"

Sure, we know all about America First, Rust Belt jobs and Canadian dairy subsidies, but certainly, even U.S. President Donald Trump knows how much trade has helped to make Americans rich, many Canadians say to themselves.

The country's prosperity is so undeniable that it's easy, reasonable even, for Canadians to brush off Trump's anti-trade jeremiads as equal parts bluster, negotiating tactics and base-galvanizing political rhetoric.

Even with trade barriers now going up between U.S. and China, it remains hard to imagine that Trump would blow up the global trading system given how much U.S. workers would suffer, right?

Maybe not.

The national security reasoning the Trump administration initially used to justify steel and aluminum tariffs was widely seen as a pretext that allowed the White House to bypass Congress and use executive power to regulate trade and charge unilaterally down the path of protectionism.

Even more troubling for Canada's economic fortunes, though, would be if that justification were sincere. In that light, Trump's reliance on Peter Navarro, an economist best known for his radical views on China, as one of his top trade advisers is an ominous sign.

As much as it strains credulity that Navarro's theories on the dangers of China's economic rise could play a role in reshaping the global economic order, that becomes more likely with every step down the slippery slope of trade protectionism.

So, yeah - somebody who believes in the "Yellow Peril" is advising the Balseraph-in-Chief, and together they're going to wreck the world's economy so that they can look good.

[LynnInDenver]

Well, if he wrecks the world's economy based on this? What everyone else should do, during the rebuild of the world's economy, is then leave the U.S. out of it entirely until it is rebuilt so that we can't wreck it ever again. We put him there, he wrecked it, we shouldn't be allowed to participate in it in any way where we can be allowed back into wrecking it in the future.

[hazard]

Jferio?

That's impossible.

Certainly, the US's prominence in the current planetary trade network can be traced clearly back to the massive shift in trade during and following the Second World War, but any economy as big as the US's in numbers absolute and relative to its population both, is going to be a major factor in the world economy unless it's being isolated deliberately and persistently. Because otherwise, when it starts interacting with the trade system, there's no way it won't have a massive impact on the market.

[Labster]

Yeah I was going to respond to JFerio but then I realized that the whole plan was incoherent so I didn't bother.

In other news, I'm going full ursa major and pulled all of my money out of stocks yesterday. Between trade wars, Robert Mueller, and Moviepass, I can't see the economy working out well in the next year, and I don't have the skill to pick winners in a down economy.

[robkelk]

I have no idea what to suggest investing in. I doubt stocks are going to be worth as much next year as they were last year. Natural resources are only valuable if somebody wants to turn them into processed goods. Bonds and other moneylending aren't much good if there's nobody borrowing money. And we all remember what happened a decade ago to real estate.

[classicdrogn]

... I need to not read political news when I'm already a bit depressed. I should know this by now.

[LynnInDenver]

Yeah, I recognize how unrealistic my idea is... however, it's also not likely that other countries can just let Orange Cheeto keep doing what he's doing since it's going to wreck things globally at this rate even if they just decide to let him have his tariffs with no tit for tat.

[nocarename]

When everything else goes down, gold usually goes up, so there's that. Or, if you're feeling extra worried, .22 ammo and canned food.
Personally, I'd stash the cash in your favourite reserve currency, wait until things have hopefully bottomed out and then buy what stocks you think look good long term.
Maybe some Disney.

[Labster]

There are actually limits to what I can do with an investment in a 401(k) from my employer. Right now I went into the money market, because that's relatively safe, so long as the economy is still based on cash and not gold/ammo/food tins. If we go back to shells I got some friends in the Chumash tribe.

Though in reality, I am thinking real estate, insofar as taking loan from my retirement to improve my own house. Given the synoptic-scale gentrification of coastal California and the rate at which outlying real estate is being destroyed in fires as we speak, I feel like city-center real estate is a good investment. And useful to me, too!

But really I feel like we're in the irrational exuberance stage of a bubble. We've had an up economy for nearly ten years now, Trump is starting trade wars with no apparent victory condition, and everyone is cheering the end of regulations. China can't keep growing at this rate forever. Europe seems to have invented a fake immigration crisis. QE has been going on for how long now in Japan and Europe? Money can't be that cheap forever.

Ten years ago, I was lobbying in D.C. for graduate students, and my colleague notice that there really a lot of banking lobbyists all over the place. And then a couple days later, Bear Stearns failed. He decided to dump all of his stock right then; I should have called my parents to do the same. I'm not making that mistake again. All of the political fundamentals worldwide say we're a crisis away from an economic downturn.