Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country

[Dartz]

Shit what I think happened while I was driving home.


--The Russians still haven't landed at Odessa.

--One wonders if Naval infantry will be better than VDV

--Civilians attempting to leave Mariupol are shelled

--A civilian made bridge in Irpin is shelled and destroyed. A family are killed.

--Vladimir Putin seen close to human beings for the first time. CGI, or Compression artifacts? It seems likely it's the latter

--It still doesn't stop Zelensky trolling him at the next press conference

--America is attempting to broker a deal where Poland gets fancy new fighters in exchange for giving their Migs to Ukraine

--There's a lot of confusion and misinformation -- or maybe disinformation?

--Zelensky is still screaming for jets and a no-fly zone

--There seems to be another big attack on Kyiv

--A large number of Russian aircraft are taking off from Belarus for an air-raid.

--Are most equipped with dumb bombs? Has Russia run out of precision weapons

--Iron bombs and a night raid mean a lot collateral damage

--And more dead jets. Ukrainian air-defences are still operational. Somehow

--A Russian cruise missile attack has destroyed the terminals buildings at an airport

--Russia seems to be just about scraping the barrel - pulling in all kinds of civilian vehicles to cover losses.

--It is, supposedly, Russian doctrine. It looks like desperation.

--It's still a very deep barrel. There're a lot of weapons still to come

--No matter how much Russia looses, there's more to fill the space.

--The letter Z is now a fascist symbol. Zorro fandom is ruined forever

--The Belorussian minister of defence has resigned rather than send the troops in.

--American Express cuts Russia off.

--Russians are pivoting to Chinese payment cards

--The Zombie economy is still rotting from the inside out.

--A supposed leak from the FSB proposes June as the date of the ultimate collapse

--Ukraine looks like toppling around the same time. A race to collapse?

--It blames a lack of transparancy, and a tendency to write reports that give the correct answers, rather than the real answers.

--This is also, coincidentally, how an RBMK reactor explodes

--Speaking of exploding reactors, video from inside Zaporizhizia NPP- "Stop firing You are endangering the whole world".

--Fucking Morons. You utter fucking morons.

--For the most part, the story remains the same

--Russia is grinding forward

--Ukraine is still killing tanks. St Javelin protects

--Putin is still threatening the West

--What shape does that take when his air-force is struggling against Ukraine?

--The Shadow of the Mushroom Cloud looms, while Russia openly searches for evidence to manufacture about a Ukrainian bomb

--A Dirty Bomb - and Atom bomb. The narrative is building towards a justification

--Is it a genuine attempt - or a hideous bluff? To be seen to lay the groundwork, in the hopes of pushing people to the table.

--Or will Kyiv and Lyiv join Hiroshima and Nagasaki - a demonstration of nuclear power, overwhelming force, to force capitulation.

--It's the Tarkin doctrine in Real Life.

--NATO is unlikely to respond in kind. Hopefully.

--Using nuclear weapons against NATO courts a holocaust.

--Any response by NATO against Russia is the same

-- Russia seems to have very few other options left

-- What the fuck will China do?

--Meanwhile, Russia descends more and more into isolationist Authoritarianism

--The Electronic Iron Curtain may drop on March 8th, electronically cutting Russia off from the outside world.

--Is Russian defense minister Shoygu thinking of pulling a coup?

--Or are they going to give him the Polonium tea?

--The same supposed leak from the FSB tries to reassure --- it takes more than 1 man to push the button. Sane minds are still operating in Russia

--And Putin has to know, if that button gets pushed, he's dead.

--Above all else, dictators want to live. Dead dictators aren't in power.


------


I don't particularly know what to think anymore. This is, overall, not going to have a nice ending for anyone. But, it's sort of a matter of what Russia drags down with it.

[Black Aeronaut]

I think China is seeing just how badly Russia is getting fucked over and are staying quiet because they know they're next if they do anything more than to remind the rest of the world that they exist.

You think it's bad for Russia?  Russia can at least self-sustain itself.  It's why they were able to persist as long as they did as the leader of the Communist Bloc.  China...  They are *NOT* self-sufficient.  They have less than one hectare of arable land per person.  And they do not have the same sort of metal deposits or petroleum reserves Russia has.

If China gets cut off the way Russia has?  They won't last more than a few months.  And I'm sure that the People's Liberation Army will finally live up to their name if it means lifting those sanctions.

As for nukes...

If Russia continues to detonate nuclear reactors, then someone is going to have to feed the ultimatum to Putin's face: "What you are doing is close enough to count as nuking cities.  At the very least, it counts as an act of terrorism.  Knock it the fuck off or else we will deploy BMD Systems... and *THEN* commence tactical strikes on your military assets.  We'll be sure to warn your troops so they have a chance to get the fuck out or be vaporized."

Ballistic missile defense is a thing.  It is already operational with the US Army having taken delivery of seven THAAD (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense) batteries and 200 interceptors.  And there is also the PAC-3 (PATRIOT Advanced Capability-3) missiles which can be deployed in even more difficult terrain than the THAAD batteries are capable of handling.  The PATRIOT system is well known, well understood, and has been made capable of intercepting ballistic warheads.  And THAAD, though troubled in its initial stages, has shown nothing but successful tests once Lockheed-Martin took the reins.  (The few "unsuccessful" tests were actually "No Test" scenarios because it was the target missile that failed, and the interceptor missile was never launched as a result.)  It has also been proven in actual combat by the UAE when they used THAAD to intercept a Houthi-launched missile.

This is exactly the sort of situation we need it for - where if the need arose, we would have the ability to put the sword against another Nuclear Power's neck, and tell them that we, as well as our allies, are sick of their shit and further aggression will absolutely not be tolerated any further.

[classicdrogn]

China might be far less able to stay functional if cut off from trade, but doing so would also cut off the world's supply lines for everything made there, which once you include components and upstream equipment is basically everything in developed/"first world" nations. Everything but food and artisanal boutique luxury goods at least, and even those when tools and, again, components and materials are considered.

Come to that, isn't the majority of the world supply of titanium mined in/by Russia? I seem to remember something about that, though it was from years ago.

[Labster]

-- BBC casts "Vladimir Putin as the [Y2K] bug in a human and deadly form." (Link not because the article is interesting but because it's proof they actually wrote this)
-- Putin is partying like it's 1939
-- South Korea joins bank sanctions on Russia
-- North Korea launches missiles in desperate attempt to get senpai to notice
-- International gymnastics federation shocked -- shocked! -- that a Russian gymnast displayed pro-war messages at a competition the day before the ban on Russians went into effect.
-- US Congress seems to want to ban Russian oil, US President does not.  Republicans plan to blame Dems for the price increase later.
-- Oil hits 130 petrodollars per barrel as markets assume major sanctions are coming
-- Russians tell their Ukrainian family members that the artillery shell that hit their house is fake news
-- Russians must now "and chill" without Netflix
-- American Express leaves Russia.  Visa already gone, because it's only "everywhere you want to be", and you don't want to be in Russia.
-- 1.5 million refugees is a lot.  Expect more.
-- Refugee children arriving without parents in Europe is the hot new trend.
-- 4% of Moldova's population are refugees.  One in eight children there is a refugee.
-- There are vague worries about famine in Africa due to a cut off in Russian or Ukrainian fertilizer and grain
-- Russia opens up a new flank in Ukraine's soft underbelly, by firing rockets from Transnistria.
-- Huge protests in occupied Kherson.  Russians confused as to why they are not greeted as liberators.
-- Smaller protests in St. Petersburg, but the police break out the batons early.
-- Russians release siberian tigers from Kiev Zoo.
-- That last one was false, but I'm sure I had you going there because of the other stupid stuff they're doing, so why not tigers?
-- Poland will give fighter jets to Ukraine, if US gives better fighter jets to Poland.
-- China remains vaguely, but not really, pro-Russia.  Like the USA during WWI, they are more than happy to sell to both sides, then move into the post-war power vacuum.
-- A week ago, I missed: IOC tells athletic federations to ban Russian and Belarussian athletes... or just remove their flags or whatever. Revokes Putin's membership in the Olympic Order
-- Wikipedia: "The [Olympic] Truce has been violated three times in the modern history of the Games. All three violations have been committed by the Russian Federation."
-- The humanitarian cease fire at Mariupol has been violated twice in the past two days.  Both violations have been committed by the Russian Federation.  Try #3 today.
-- The Russian government has said that he is providing evacuation routes for four cities today as a personal favor to Macron.  The French government says no such request took place, and following international law is not a favor.  It's kind of weird that this is a thing.
-- Letter "Z" ruined.
-- And I'm freeeee / Free fallin'
-- French Canadians stop eating poutine, because they spell putain Putin's name Poutine in French.  Numbnuts racists have threatened restaurants.
-- The chance of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine goes up with each passing day.
-- And by "tactical", I mean, a tactic to expand NATO very very quickly. If neutrality is not enough to keep your country from being nuked, alignment sure looks attractive.

[robkelk]

Russia is now on Global Affairs Canada's "Avoid all travel" list.

Avoid all travel
There is an extreme risk to your personal safety and security. You should not travel to this country, territory or region. If you are already in the country, territory or region, you should consider leaving if it is safe to do so.

[robkelk]

So... As I understand it, Putin says the invasion is justified because Ukraine was part of Russia before World War II.

But he isn't saying a thing about giving Kaliningrad Oblast back its pre-WWII name of Königsberg and giving that territory back to Germany...

[Bob Schroeck]

And as the cartoon I posted a few days back points out, what if he decides Russia has a claim on Alaska after all these years?

[Dartz]

Right, we're back from the office - what the fuck happened while we were gone


--Russia has reached 100% commitment. The first barrel is empty

--By one (shakey) measure of casualities, they've been literally decimated.

--Another Fullback fucked. That's 3 so far.

--Being a Russian supply truck driver seems to be a way to get a guaranteed coffin.

--Ukrainian special forces claim to blow up 30 helicopters in Kherson

--VDV secretly thankful they now have an excuse for not leaving the safety of their base.

--It has not been confirmed if they have left their hearts with the sappers round Kherson.

--There'll be no VDV heroes in 2023

--More wrecked Russian AFV's. One more Broke-dick T72 with it's barrel almost in-half

--One more round of peace talks fail.

--Russia's terms now Donbass, Luhansk, Crimea, mandatory neutrality and a Russian toady as PM

--Hmm. Did they just blink?

--Once again, 'Humanitarian Corridors through Mariupol' is a new way to say 'Haha Fuck you'

--Choose between a safe route to Belarus, Russia, or through a fucking freshly-laid minefield.

--Like, fuck me that's some proper moustache-twirling evil shit.

--I wouldn't believe it either if it hadn't come from the Red Cross.

--One Russian officer on Ukrainian TV - "Shit, we're the baddies" (But more eloquently)

--More Ukrainian Weapons of Mass destruction. Now into the Biological weapons. That's the full NBC

--I can't shake the feeling that this is building to something utterly abhorrent - like, gets its own chapter of infamy in the history book abhorrent.

--The same sense of inevitability before the war began pervades this.

--I want to think it's a bluff.

--Random rumour from the office from a doctor familiar with these things. Putin has Parkinsons. Putin has stomach cancer - had surgery during Covid and is terminal as fuck.

--It would explain his rapid self-isolation. No immune system left due to chemo'

--And this shitshow is his legacy to history. The man who finally united europe

--For about ten minutes. There're minor squabbles about cutting the gas off or increasing the pain.

--Where the fuck is Ukraines armour?

--Idea from an idiot. Driving it out, painting invasion markings on it and 'Capturing it' to fuck with Russia?

--I got my military science degree from Facebook university. (No lab accepted my Twitter Masters in Virology)

--Ukraine's Foreign Legions are so oversubscribed they can afford to be picky -- no Wannabees with Viva La Quinta Brigada notions - competent people only.

--They're still advertising. (And there's still that bit of your brain that goes 'If only I wasn't so fat, lazy, and terrible at FPS's ')

--Russian embassy in South Africa gets schooled on Nazi recognition by Germany Embassy (If anyone has experience with Nazi's...)

--Russia has few friends left in the world.

--Shell still wants to business with them. As do Coca-Cola.

--China claims to be friend of Russia, working to diplomatic solution

--Russia refers to Taiwan as a country by mistake in its Nixonian enemies list.

--Some eejit in Dublin backs a truck full of religious tat through the gates of the Russian embassy. Promptly arrested (Wasn't me)

--Russian embassy complains of attack on peaceful diplomatic mission, and why the police didn't dive under the truck to stop it.

--Japan eyes up the Kuril islands.

--粘土?



-----



Special Parking Operation, nothing more.

[Labster]

And as the cartoon I posted a few days back points out, what if he decides Russia has a claim on Alaska after all these years?

Nah, that cartoon is wrong and alarmist.  It's far more likely a Russian nuke will arrive in Anchorage than the return of Russian troops to Sitka.

Plus, the sale of Alaska was completed, so they don't have a claim there.  On the other hand, Russian historians maintain that John Sutter never paid them for Fort Ross, so they still own Northern California.  The poor citizens of Sonoma County need protection!

Meanwhile, some civil servant decided to defictionalize the "Fuck off to Russia" road sign, throwing it up in Odessa:

[Dartz]

AN-225 Mirya has gone - joined up with Buran in the Great hanger in the sky.


There is, however Another

Just waiting to be finished

The Fate of Destruction is the Joy of Rebirth

[Labster]

-- Second Russian general killed in action, with some of his support staff.
-- We know the general was killed, because it was reported back to Mother Russia in the clear, because the secure phones aren't working (also reported in the same call)
-- Another day, another cease-fire broken.  It's almost like these guys can't be trusted.
-- Ukraine has had enough of this bullshit, and won't accept cease-fires where their citizens are sent to Russia for "protection".
-- The US is slouching towards a ban on Russian oil, with or without allies.  It's only 2% of imports here, so not really a big deal.  In Europe, it depends on which country (see graph).  Ireland and UK are already at 0%, Netherlands is at 2%.
-- Irishman hits Russian Embassy gate with truck; Garda apologizes for arresting him while arresting him
-- Internet considers ordering communion wafers from the guy who hit the Russian Embassy
-- Internet sad Truck-kun didn't get to meet the ambassador
-- Internet's ICANN says it will not revoke .ru TLD because what will that help even?
-- Russia not telling Russians anything about what soldiers are doing, so families are very worried.
-- Ukraine launches hotline for Russians to call, so they can find out what happened to their sons.  Their goal is to reunite every single Russian soldier with his family back in Russia as soon as possible.  Also, fuck off back to Russia, invaders.
-- Everywhere on the both sides of the Europe-Ukraine border can't handle the huge number of refugees.  Poland alone has over a million.
-- Distant Ireland has taken 1800 refugees so far; the UK has taken 50 (probably oligarchs).  As you'd expect from a man named Boris.
-- Russia still has three more nuclear power plants to capture (map).  Exciting times ahead.

[Black Aeronaut]

-- Russia still has three more nuclear power plants to capture blow up (map).  Exciting times ahead.

FTFY.

EDIT: Why are we *not* declaring the willful destruction of nuclear reactors an act of terrorism?

[robkelk]

Shell finally notices which way the wind is blowing, announces they'll stop buying Russian oil and doing business in the country.

[classicdrogn]

My guess would be that Shell had a ship or two in port waiting to be filled and wanted to get those loaded and under way before cutting it off, rather than having to sail them at a loss. Not ideal by any means, but far from the scummiest thing an oil company has ever done if so.

[robkelk]

If so, I don't know where they're going to sell that oil.

U.S. bans all Russian oil and gas imports - I believe they're the last G7 nation to do so.


EDIT: Meanwhile, gas prices in Vancouver today:



EDIT: Multiply those numbers by 3.79 to get price per US gallon. Then multiply by 0.8 to convert from Canadian dollars to US dollars (close enough).

[Bob Schroeck]

Ouch. It's times like this I'm really glad I live in NJ, with transport surcharges on gasoline basically zero. As of a couple days ago at least, we hadn't broken $4/gallon except on premium.

[classicdrogn]

Those prices are about a (US) dollar less than normal here in the Bridgewater Triangle as of a month ago, but we're in horrible-commute range of Boston, so... What would they normally have been?

[Labster]

I really doubt that anywhere in the continental US was at $2/L last month. Are you thinking these are gallons?

[robkelk]

What Labster said. Multiply those numbers by 3.79 to get price per US gallon. Then multiply by 0.8 to convert from Canadian dollars to US dollars. For a quick-and-dirty close-enough approximation, just triple those numbers to get close enough to the equivalent numbers on a US pump... so, yeah, $US6/gallon for regular.

As for normal, those prices are approximately 1.5 times what they were two weeks ago.

[Dartz]

We're at 2 Euro per litre of petrol here.

It was 1.30 this time last year. In truth, rate of change the last few weeks has been low because most of it is just tax

The majority of that is excise tax. Because Green Party

---

Right I was busy today so this'll be short

--The Russian embassy in Ireland is mewling about the damage to its gates by a Christ-McNugget delivery truck
--The Irish Twitterati is yapping back like Napoleon's own Terrier, each one thinking they're Oscar Wilde
--It was just a Special parking operation. The truck naturally expanded its sphere of influence. The gate shouldn't have stayed shut if it didn't want to get run over.
--War is serious business. But the neutrality debate has begun. People are dying and we're focused on Parochial shit.
--So, the brand new Era in Russian crypto-coms - doesn't work. Consumer SIM cards used instead.
--Using conventional mobile phones means everyone can eavesdrop
--Major General Vitaly Garasimov goes to the front to unfuck things pronto
--Major Generay Vitaly Garasimov gets fucked
--Confirmed when someone intercepts the phone call - complaining about the broken crypto, and the dead general.
--Random car and occupants used as target practice by tank.
--Once again, calling ceasefires and then shelling the fuck out of people. Or launching attacks
--Fool me five times, shame on you - fool me six times?
--Russias word now worth less than Russian ruble.
--With everything grinding down, this is degenerating rapidly into what comes an across as an attempt to just murder people into submission.
--Rumours of entire villages being razed by Russian troops to keep them from reporting army movements.
--Every single Ukrainian citizen with a phone is a potential spy feeding real-time intel.
--Along with the electric NATO eye far above.
--For the most part, Ukraine seems to be husbanding its remaining technical resources (Aircraft, tanks, drones) well.
--Or their destruction is not being reported.
--So long as Ukraine is still fighting, it is winning.
--Putin increasingly isolated and irrational. CIA probably viewing livestream from his office.
--With everything going to hell, for the average Russian, he remains a point of stability
--McDonalds gets the message at last, and shuts up shop in Russia
-- Dealer of toxic black liquid which runs the world - Coca-Cola - yet to follow suit.
--Shell finally closes the Russian Oil Taps
--Serbians tend towards Russia - NATO's bombing 20 years ago looms large in the public consciousness
--Odesa has flipped from pro-Russia to Ukraine in the space of 2 weeks
--Protests in Kazakhistan against the war are permitted.
--China is making polite mouth noises to both sides - asking for restraint and peace - but really doesn't want to be on the planet right now.
--It's getting awkward on the world stage.
--Poland trades Mig-29's to America in exchange for aircraft of equivelant capability. Suggests it's neighbours take the same deal.
--It's obvious where they're going afterwards. A little bit of theatre to thumb the noise at Putin, and bring an unspoken big stick into play.
--What the fuck is this America? Have they been replaced by their peace-loving mirror universe doppleganger? Calm. Competent. Facilitating. Turning its back on oil?
--US has banned imports of Russian oil
--EU is trying to wean itself - but as much as it needs Russian fuels, it is one of the few sources of hard currency for Russia right now.
--Belgium and Germany reconsidering their nuclear power programs as a result.
--The letter Z gets the Swastika treatment. A Russian gymnast faces a lengthy ban for wearing it against Ukrainian opponent.
--Russia is threatening to nationalise assets of unfriendly countries that're in Russia.
--Europe is facing the largest refugee crisis since World War 3 and is just fucking doing it
--1800 in Ireland already. Nearly a million in Poland.
--Even Britain has accepted a whole 50. Pritti Patel's act of generosity will be long remembered
--Seeing how much fun we're having up over, New Zealand gets in on the sanctions act.
--Russia is requesting a return to 'Peaceful Co-Existance', like the Soviet days
--Bollocks.

--There is, a second.....

------

[Black Aeronaut]

....

So.

The Russian army is whole-sale slaughtering entire villages for the simple sake of keeping their movements secret.

Someone is gonna suffer for this.

Unfortunately, I think Putin is gonna make with the Karma Houdini act and somehow get away with it.

[Bob Schroeck]

What Labster said. Multiply those numbers by 3.79 to get price per US gallon. Then multiply by 0.8 to convert from Canadian dollars to US dollars. For a quick-and-dirty close-enough approximation, just triple those numbers to get close enough to the equivalent numbers on a US pump... so, yeah, $US6/gallon for regular.

As for normal, those prices are approximately 1.5 times what they were two weeks ago.

I was well aware that they were cents per liter and did a rough conversion in my head.  Good to see I wasn't off by much and still have reason to be glad I'm in NJ vis-a-vis gas prices.

As for rate of climb... yeah.  A week ago our prices were in the $3.65/gallon range.  A week before that, $3.40/gallon.

[Norgarth]

In my area of Canada the gas prices are currently around $1.80/L, 2 weeks ago it was a good 40 cents cheaper.

[Labster]

Russia is the third largest nickel miner in the world.  So the price of nickel is up five times since the beginning of the year, and has now hit $100k per ton.  Basically, there's a short squeeze, and a lot of people just need to buy any nickel to cover their investment.  But for the nickel mining companies that were hedging their income, it would be pretty silly to go out of business because nickel prices are too high.  Nickel trading has been halted as a result.

What does this mean for you?  Well, in the US, a nickel (5¢ piece) is worth about 9¢ melted down.  Start melting your coins before things go back to normal!  Also, the price of electric cars will increase $1000 from nickel alone.

-- Also, the IAEA lost contact with Chernobyl.  Hopefully nothing has exploded.
-- Reactor staff still not allowed to change shifts.
-- McDonalds closes its restaurants, but plans to keep paying its employees so as to feed money more directly into the Russian economy.
-- Lines outside McDonalds today are long, but not as long as the utter chaos that was the last day at IKEA.
-- PepsiCo is kinda sorta leaving Russia, barely: basically they make food products and argue for continued production for humanitarian reasons.  They will stop advertising and capital investments, though.
-- Starbucks closing in Russia.  Russians will soon have to toast their own beans into charcoal.
-- Russia announces wide-ranging import-export ban; will announce what goods and what countries are covered later.  Let me revise: Russia announces propaganda.
-- Russia attempting to interfere in nuclear treaty with Iran, because why not sabotage other relationships with the West?

I've mostly been focused on the business and diplomatic realms when I post here.  Partially that's because I really don't like to think about human suffering.  But the other part is that I feel like the economics are perhaps more important to winning the war than the military conditions in Ukraine.  Sure, control of territory actually matters, especially on a human level, but so long as Ukraine maintains at least a force in being, the war can be won economically and diplomatically.

[classicdrogn]

I really doubt that anywhere in the continental US was at $2/L last month. Are you thinking these are gallons?

D'oh. That's even written right on the pump. Right then, commie quarts. Yeah, that's quite a bit more expensive.