Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II

[classicdrogn]

While I haven't seen anything about it from reputable news sources yet, various vloggers and Fox have been reporting that Russia may have fired one of their models of ICBM at Ukraine. Obviouisly not a nuclear armed one or it would definitely be all over everywhere, but a type that can carry that kind of payload.

[robkelk]

While I haven't seen anything about it from reputable news sources yet, various vloggers and Fox have been reporting that Russia may have fired one of their models of ICBM at Ukraine. Obviouisly not a nuclear armed one or it would definitely be all over everywhere, but a type that can carry that kind of payload.

AP: Putin says Russia has tested a new intermediate range missile in a strike on Ukraine

If FOX is saying "ICBM", either they're misinformed or scaremongering.

[hazard]

Russia has been slinging nuclear payload capable missiles since the start.

They just haven't so far used one equipped with a nuclear warhead.

[Labster]

While I haven't seen anything about it from reputable news sources yet, various vloggers and Fox have been reporting that Russia may have fired one of their models of ICBM at Ukraine. Obviouisly not a nuclear armed one or it would definitely be all over everywhere, but  a type that can carry that kind of payload.

AP: Putin says Russia has tested a new intermediate range missile in a strike on Ukraine

If FOX is saying "ICBM", either they're misinformed or scaremongering.

I would caution against believing what the Russians put out in press releases, and even against what the American government is saying.  If it looks like an ICBM, it probably was, or was similar enough to one to be made with the same parts.  I think Occam's razor would indicate that it's very unlikely that Russia developed an entirely new superweapon during this war when it can't get enough microchips, or even enough barrels for its artillery.

Likely, it was intended to be a specific nuclear threat to the United States, and there's no reason for the U.S. government to play up the threat.  The message is clear and it was received.

from ABC News:

Ukraine's military was "95% sure" the strike on Thursday was with an ICBM, a Ukrainian official told ABC News, but added that they were still examining the missile parts on the ground and had not yet reached a final conclusion.

"Today it was a new Russian missile. All the parameters: speed, altitude -- match those of an intercontinental ballistic missile," Zelenskyy initially said in a statement on social media. "All expert evaluations are underway."

[classicdrogn]

If FOX is saying "ICBM", either they're misinformed or scaremongering.

well I did say

While I haven't seen anything about it from reputable news sources yet,

but that was the headline they were using for a clip title, even if the picture was lust a SCUD truck. Apparently the situation is still unclear, but I agree there's plenty of reason to doubt government statements from any side, and precious little chance of any nominally neutral, or at least international, party getting so much as close enough to catch a whiff or some from the wreckage.

Still not a positive development any way you look at it, even if it's a case of Russia having run so short on missiles that they're putting a lwar load on prototypes and sending them forward to do their test program the anime way.

[robkelk]

Governor Trump claims Ukraine started the war

[Norgarth]

One of the Trump quotes used in that article:
"Zelensky is a 'dictator without elections'"
No wonder Trump is upset, he sees someone else living his dream.

I have had several links pop up on Youtube that seem to suggest Russia recently took heavy loses in a series of assaults. dunno how accurate that is.

The 'peace talks' (which notably don't include Ukraine) may mean Putin is looking for an excuse he can use to call off the War without admitting how badly he's screwed up.

[Labster]

So Ukraine agreed to the 30 day ceasefire proposal that the United States strong-armed them into, and thereafter restored military aid.  Looks like Trump is a shoe-in for a Nobel Prize and a Fields Medal too.  But then Putin dropped his list of changes he wanted to agree to the ceasefire:

1. No NATO membership for Ukraine.

2. No foreign troops in Ukraine.

3. International recognition that Crimea and the four new oblasts belong to Russia

4. Ukraine is permanently a nuclear-free state

5. Putin wants a veto action to stop countries from assisting Ukraine in case it is at war again.

6. NATO rolls back its eastern expansion which they say started the war

7. No western troops in countries that border the Russian Federation

8. Russia can place limits on military size for countries that border the Russian Federation

9. A ban on NATO military exercises in the Caucasus and Central Asia

10. A ban on the United States deploying any intermediate range missiles anywhere in the world that can hit Russian territory (presumably including Alaska)

[hazard]

Trump will agree to all of these.

Whether the rest of NATO and/or the world agree is a different question.

[Labster]

Don't be ridiculous, Trump would never take orders from Mos—

[Bob Schroeck]

Vlad-sempai, please notice me!

[classicdrogn]

And yet, Putin turned it down. Apparently it needs even more everything he wants to get a nod from Vlad.

[Jinx999]

And yet, Putin turned it down. Apparently it needs even more everything he wants to get a nod from Vlad.

Now we see if Trump throws a temper tantrum from being denied something he wants, or he reserves that for people he thinks are beneath him on the great chain of ass kissing.

[robkelk]

If royal visits are about sending a message, then the picture of the Prince of Wales in a tank near the Russian border must be one of the most direct.

[robkelk]

Inside Ukraine’s secret deep strike against Russian bombers

Set aside 10 minutes for this one.

tl;dr: While the strategic win is important, the propaganda win is even more important.

EDIT: Oh, and one of the unconfirmed bits, if true, would be quite the propaganda win. I'm thinking of where the operation's HQ is said to have been located.

[Labster]

I haven't updated this thread in a while, mainly because things were very depressing last year.  After the failure of Ukraine's Zaprorizhzhia offensive in the south, the war settled into a terrible stalemate.  Russia was slowly gaining ground through its willingness to sacrifice the lives of its minorities.  And then moved on to sacrificing the lives of volunteers from other countries (and orders for North Korea, who got money for lives).  On the other hand, Ukraine was having pretty severe manpower problems, with a huge fraction of a generation dead, wounded, or draft dodging.  Russia's winter campaign strategy was largely strategic bombing of power plants, meaning a cold winter indeed -- not that this strategy will ever be effective for destroying an opponent's will.  The U.S. has essentially abandoned foreign aid to Ukraine, though the E.U. has increased but not quite covered the gap.

Surprisingly, then, this year has turned out to be quite hopeful for the good guys.  Ukraine has managed to deploy entirely new killer robots -- not the kind from the movies, but more a long the lines of throwing a machine gun plus platform onto wheels and remote-control it in front of your troops.  And they've spent more resources developing drones, and targeting infrastructure far into Russia.  It turns out it's very hard/expensive to have effective air defense covering a country the size of Russia.

I watched a video on their drone tactics, which I can't really recommend because the guy wouldn't get to the damn point, but when he finally did, it's full of fun stuff like "three drones repeatedly switching places totally screws up Orkish radar tracking" and is all pretty sophisticated now.  The fact that Ukraine has managed to get defense treaties with gulf states, all ostensibly protected by the U.S. but apparently not in practice, shows the sophistication that Ukraine has gotten in drone design and in drone doctrine.  While Russia is still mostly isolated, Ukraine is making new allies, getting diplomatic wins that mean new investment in Ukraine.

The U.S. seemed like it was handing Russia a big win when You-Know-Who attacked Iran.  Pretty early, in order to keep petrol prices low, the US dropped sanctions on Russian fuel.  But it turns out high fuel prices haven't been much of a boon for Russia because of a couple things: rising fuel prices means the Russians need to spend more on subsidies for their own petrol prices.  And Ukraine has been targeting fuel production as its drone strategy, so the windfall profits have been largely eaten up on infrastructure repair.  Plus, Iran has stopped shipping its drones to Russia, using them in its own defense.  So far, the one and only clear winner of the US-Israel-Iran War is Ukraine, which is honestly just weird.

Russia unilaterally declared a ceasefire for its Victory Day parades tomorrow.  Ukraine unilaterally countered under the same terms of the Russia's ceasefire, except that it would start on May 5 instead.  Russia ignored Ukraine's actual ceasefire which they actually did... so I guess it's back to war as usual.  They're moving air defense away from the front lines to protect Moscow for the parade.  There are no tanks left to run through the streets, so they're just having a few guys march in formation.  Russia, you alright?

Ukraine's manpower problems are still present, but at least they've adapted around it.  They're retaking land in their country once again.  And the U.S. is too distracted to make things worse, at the very least.

[Labster]

A couple updates worth mentioning here:

First, Kyiv monastery set on fire in night of Russian attacks across Ukraine - Dormition Cathedral at Unesco world heritage site struck along with residential buildings across capital.  Russians bombed Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, who honestly knows if it was on purpose. Their bombs are not that accurate, and have shitty Soviet-era gyroscopes.  This is basically the site commemorating the ancient conversion of the Slavs to Christianity, but is anything sacred to these guys.

You get the usual people saying that they should retaliate by bombing St. Basil's in Red Square, but this is stupid.  Strategic bombing of civilians doesn't work, it just hardens opinions of people.  Bombing an ancient building is much better than shooting a single person.  Thankfully Kyiv is now disciplined in this.

And they found a great new target: the giant oil refinery outside Moscow.  Video here, it's fantastic!  C'mon, don't flip your lid!  Note you can see that rocket flying in -- that's not a Ukrainian drone, that's Russian air defense trying to shoot an Ukrainian drone, and hitting an oil tank instead.  Finally, we have an answer to "what air defense doing?", it's "Russian oil tank fucked itself."  This is 10 miles from Red Square, of course.  Russian media tends to be concentrated on how they need to catch the people sharing video of that explosion, as if people didn't notice the explosion, or the oil rain, or the deep black clouds, or the hours-long lines outside the petrol stations.''

Trump seems to have been brought back to a perspective that Ukraine can win. Which probably won't mean any more aid from the U.S., but less getting in the way of people who will aid Ukraine.

Petrol shortages have gotten pretty severe in Crimea, leaving locals competing with military for fuel.  When the air defense officers cut the queue, everyone starts hurling abuse at them for stealing 'our' fuel.

[robkelk]

The Register: Ukraine puts its Russian war trophies online for allies to pick apart

By "war trophies", they mean ordnance and vehicles.

As for how much equipment is in the database so far, the Defense Ministry said that TrophyLab currently contains samples from more than 115 war trophies divided into 79 categories, including bombs and missiles, aircraft, drones, electronic warfare equipment, tanks, and even small arms.

More than 225 prior studies of the seized equipment are also included in the TrophyLab dataset, and that’s just the beginning, with Ukrainian defense forces, the Main Intelligence Directorate, and the country’s Security Service all continually providing data for the program.

They aren't giving access to just anybody, though.

In order to get a peek at the TrophyLab data, applicants need to prove they don’t have any ties to Russia, haven’t been sanctioned by Ukraine, and meet other criteria set by the MoD.

[classicdrogn]

Crowdsourcing military research... truly, we live in a new era. Eh, apes together strong, as they say.

[Norgarth]

It also allows countries concerned with future aggression from Russia to see what they'll be facing. I suspect there's several countries that are eager to look over that data.

[robkelk]

CBC News: Russia, one of the world's biggest oil exporters, moves to import fuel as drone strikes squeeze supply

Russian officials wouldn't name which countries they are negotiating with regarding fuel imports, but the major Moscow-based newspaper Kommersant reported that officials may allow energy companies to temporarily produce lower-quality gasoline and diesel, and permit lower-quality imports.

[Inquisitive Raven]

It doesn't matter how much product you've got if you can't get it to the distribution points.

[Labster]

It's been quite a while here since I commented on the Ukraine War.  I'd say that we're closer to a real end to the war than ever, because both sides are really hurting. That's not to say an armistice will happen this year -- I don't think it will.  But both sides are having mobilization problems, logistics problems, energy problems.

The Russian people's support is waning, and they might vote to end the war... but of course the people don't have a say.  The anti-war party Yabloko (meaning apple) was allowed on the Russian ballots to show how weak the anti-war position was, but then as support got over 10% they had to be banned from the ballot rapidly.  They accomplished this because of Yabloko's rampant copyright infringement of materials in the public domain, plus infringement of other IP used with permission of the copyright holder.  Yup.  There's a reason Ivanova on B5 has her sense of humor.

The Ukrainian strategy of the summer has been to bomb logistics deep inside Russia via zerg rushes of drones, while slowly trading land for time in Ukraine's Fortress Belt.  As usual, fortifications now means cities.  You can't actually build a fortress against modern bombs, but cities, even when reduced to rubble, brickwork, and exposed iron beams, offers significant defensive value.

Anyway, the logistics being attacked was first the oil refineries, which has made for some hilarious petrol shortages in an OPEC member.  People lining up for miles at fuel stations, lol.  But with that largely done, they moved on to new logistics centers: Russia's version of Amazon and Ali Express, the warehouses of Wildberries and Ozon.  In addition to the vast array of household items and media, they also sell parts and defense gear, just like Amazon.  And they do storage for the military.  Either of which makes them a legal target.  (Russia has retaliated by targeting supermarket warehouses, which is kinda not the same.)

Meanwhile, we've gone through a whole political scandal in Ukraine, which I will summarize somewhat pithily.  Zelensky dismissed Mykhailo Fedorov from the job of Defense Minister, because the reformer was really pissing off the old army with its legacy of Soviet-trained leadership.  Zelensky presumably looked at both sides of the coin, and decided Federov was the one being the most annoying (and most likely to challenge Zelensky politically) so he picked Federov to go.  His reforms and the drone tactics were really working, so people got really upset, and did massive street protests for his reinstatement.

So Zelensky reversed but only a little bit.  He offered Federov a different job.  How about Minister of Administrative Affairs?  Nope, he wouldn't take any job other than Defense.  Big Z tried to mollify the crowd by appointing a different reformer and Defense Minister.  People were still upset.  They confirmed the new Defense Minister anyway.  Finally, Federov spoke out this week and called for snap elections in Ukraine.  Maybe vote on cell phones or something?  And then the next day the protesters evaporated, the protest leaders disowned Federov.  A step too far.  Elections right now are stupid; Russians will literally and figuratively target the polls, with billions, bribes, and bombs.  Everyone knows this.  Except the guy Zelensky fired for being too ambitious.  Democracy isn't just elections, it's protesting, listening to the people, but making tough decisions anyway.  This is a healthy democracy.

Americans might not recognize a healthy democracy when they see one.  Or a healthy military, for that matter.  Ukrainian drones wipe out entire US tank brigade in live war game.  When you have to respawn an entire brigade in the first few hours of the game, maybe your doctrine is wrong?  See also: the War of American Aggression in Iran.

One of the Ukrainians that Germany accused of bombing the Nord Stream pipeline was asked to be extradited from Poland, whereupon the Polish courts were like "nah bombing Russian shit is fair play."  He then got a role consulting on a movie about the bombing of the pipeline, so he ended up in Croatia.  Germany is trying to extradite him a second time from there, when another EU member has already denied extradition.  Which will set a fun new precedent either way!