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So what happens if a real disaster/crisis shows up?
RE: So what happens if a real disaster/crisis shows up?
#23
(09-09-2017, 10:04 PM)Rajvik Wrote: that said, i have never said myself that there is not climate change, i just argue that the "Evidence" in support of "Man made Global Warming" has always been bullshit. Our recorded history of weather is way to short to make any realistic and accurate predictions where the weather is concerned, to a degree and on a smaller scale Irma being a prime example. Over the course of about 24-30 hours that one storm's course predictions were changed from the East side of the state to the West side. Right now i sit with most of my windows boarded up because i feel relatively paranoid about this storm coming as far west as Pensacola, or even close enough to seriously effect us. Tomorrow i will finish boarding up my windows and then hunker down and wait.
You can argue that the evidence is bullshit, but that doesn't make it true.  If you can prove that any of the evidence is bullshit, I'd invite you to publish in one of the AMS journals, or JGR.  I'd be happy to be a coauthor, and I'm a real meteorologist.

It's very difficult to make good predictions of weather over time, because the modeling the atmosphere involves solving several partial differential equations as both an initial value and boundary value problem.  Boundaries can be generally approximated pretty well, but the initial condition is terrible because you might have one observation over 100 square kilometers, and you gotta assimilate that sparse data into what observations have "blown in" to the area.  It's worse in the tropics because (1) more ocean = less obs, (2) poorer countries = less obs, and (3) satellites = lower quality obs.  All that said, being off by only about 30km for the storm's center is actually pretty good.  Both objectively and in terms of what we expect in forecast model performance.  Yes, that means the opposite side of the state gets hit, but hey, it's not like we haven't been forecasting a "cone of uncertainty" all along.

(09-09-2017, 10:04 PM)Rajvik Wrote: Final thoughts; I don't know how old each of you are, i am 38 myself and if my mind isnt running summers together i have seen back to back storms like this before, damn conga line of them stretching back across the damn Atlantic a couple of times. But then again my memory could be screwing with me, i would have to check.
There have definitely been seasons with more storms.  Irma is an anomaly in terms of how large it is; having had time to go through 5 eyewall generation cycles made it a very large storm.  The conga line is actually less dangerous, though, because each storm is going to take a portion of the available energy from the sea that the next storm could have used.  It's why José fizzled.

(09-09-2017, 10:04 PM)Rajvik Wrote: Also, Irma is the strongest Atlantic storm ON RECORD, you do realize that this record does not include the unnamed hurricane that WIPED PENSACOLA OFF THE MAP, unnamed because in the 1600's they didnt do that. But for that storm, Pensacola would be the oldest settlement in the US, not Saint Augustine.
We're all quite aware of how short the record is on storms.  It's largely because of accurate weather predictions that we were able to save tens of thousands of lives in Irma alone.  Between the science of forecasting to the engineering of building codes, we've made this a pretty death-free affair.  It's like you're accepting the results of some science, while rejecting the work of some of the same scientists because you don't like it.  I mean, what?
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto
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RE: So what happens if a real disaster/crisis shows up? - by Labster - 09-13-2017, 12:15 AM

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