Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II

[Labster]

NATO has rather bluntly stated that if Russia where to cause a breach NATO will intervene, but it's uncertain how much that would deter Russia. Or encourage them.

Russia has been running on highly questionable logic for a good long while now.

One pretty obvious problem in international relations is that actors tend to assume that other countries will make decisions similar to the way they do.  Examples include "Iraqis will greet us a liberators", pre-WWII appeasement, and whatever the heck that peace deal Britain was trying to make with Germany before the first world war.  Sometimes it works positively, like when Vietnam became the first country to close its borders because of the coronavirus, because as a fellow communist state they knew exactly what their northern neighbor was trying to hide.  It's a fundamental problem, because you can't predict your rival if you don't have a theory of mind for how they act.

Bellicose rhetoric without intent to actually fight NATO is what Russia has been doing for a long time.  They're just assuming that we're the same -- that we'll never risk nuclear war, because we secretly fear them while stating in public how strong we are.  They're assuming that because America struggled in Afghanistan, they are the same with their struggles in Ukraine.  I think they will blow the plant because Putin's cabal doesn't have the theory of mind to understand American actions, and they don't want to hear from people who do.

If anything, I'd expect the Russian logic to go "If we can make it look like Ukraine is responsible for a nuclear disaster, those stupid degenerate NATO pig-dogs will intervene on our behalf!"
Putin's version of logic, I mean, and possibly his immediate advisors. I expect the ones who remain are all well aware that saying "No, that is bad idea" is the kind of career move only senior advisors confident in their ability to fly make.

Literally no one is thinking this in government.  You don't help your geopolitical rivals go to war against your allies, period.  You don't even help them unless you think you're getting the better deal.