RE: Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II
08-24-2026, 05:35 PM
08-24-2026, 05:35 PM
It's been quite a while here since I commented on the Ukraine War. I'd say that we're closer to a real end to the war than ever, because both sides are really hurting. That's not to say an armistice will happen this year -- I don't think it will. But both sides are having mobilization problems, logistics problems, energy problems.
The Russian people's support is waning, and they might vote to end the war... but of course the people don't have a say. The anti-war party Yabloko (meaning apple) was allowed on the Russian ballots to show how weak the anti-war position was, but then as support got over 10% they had to be banned from the ballot rapidly. They accomplished this because of Yabloko's rampant copyright infringement of materials in the public domain, plus infringement of other IP used with permission of the copyright holder. Yup. There's a reason Ivanova on B5 has her sense of humor.
The Ukrainian strategy of the summer has been to bomb logistics deep inside Russia via zerg rushes of drones, while slowly trading land for time in Ukraine's Fortress Belt. As usual, fortifications now means cities. You can't actually build a fortress against modern bombs, but cities, even when reduced to rubble, brickwork, and exposed iron beams, offers significant defensive value.
Anyway, the logistics being attacked was first the oil refineries, which has made for some hilarious petrol shortages in an OPEC member. People lining up for miles at fuel stations, lol. But with that largely done, they moved on to new logistics centers: Russia's version of Amazon and Ali Express, the warehouses of Wildberries and Ozon. In addition to the vast array of household items and media, they also sell parts and defense gear, just like Amazon. And they do storage for the military. Either of which makes them a legal target. (Russia has retaliated by targeting supermarket warehouses, which is kinda not the same.)
Meanwhile, we've gone through a whole political scandal in Ukraine, which I will summarize somewhat pithily. Zelensky dismissed Mykhailo Fedorov from the job of Defense Minister, because the reformer was really pissing off the old army with its legacy of Soviet-trained leadership. Zelensky presumably looked at both sides of the coin, and decided Federov was the one being the most annoying (and most likely to challenge Zelensky politically) so he picked Federov to go. His reforms and the drone tactics were really working, so people got really upset, and did massive street protests for his reinstatement.
So Zelensky reversed but only a little bit. He offered Federov a different job. How about Minister of Administrative Affairs? Nope, he wouldn't take any job other than Defense. Big Z tried to mollify the crowd by appointing a different reformer and Defense Minister. People were still upset. They confirmed the new Defense Minister anyway. Finally, Federov spoke out this week and called for snap elections in Ukraine. Maybe vote on cell phones or something? And then the next day the protesters evaporated, the protest leaders disowned Federov. A step too far. Elections right now are stupid; Russians will literally and figuratively target the polls, with billions, bribes, and bombs. Everyone knows this. Except the guy Zelensky fired for being too ambitious. Democracy isn't just elections, it's protesting, listening to the people, but making tough decisions anyway. This is a healthy democracy.
Americans might not recognize a healthy democracy when they see one. Or a healthy military, for that matter. Ukrainian drones wipe out entire US tank brigade in live war game. When you have to respawn an entire brigade in the first few hours of the game, maybe your doctrine is wrong? See also: the War of American Aggression in Iran.
One of the Ukrainians that Germany accused of bombing the Nord Stream pipeline was asked to be extradited from Poland, whereupon the Polish courts were like "nah bombing Russian shit is fair play." He then got a role consulting on a movie about the bombing of the pipeline, so he ended up in Croatia. Germany is trying to extradite him a second time from there, when another EU member has already denied extradition. Which will set a fun new precedent either way!
The Russian people's support is waning, and they might vote to end the war... but of course the people don't have a say. The anti-war party Yabloko (meaning apple) was allowed on the Russian ballots to show how weak the anti-war position was, but then as support got over 10% they had to be banned from the ballot rapidly. They accomplished this because of Yabloko's rampant copyright infringement of materials in the public domain, plus infringement of other IP used with permission of the copyright holder. Yup. There's a reason Ivanova on B5 has her sense of humor.
The Ukrainian strategy of the summer has been to bomb logistics deep inside Russia via zerg rushes of drones, while slowly trading land for time in Ukraine's Fortress Belt. As usual, fortifications now means cities. You can't actually build a fortress against modern bombs, but cities, even when reduced to rubble, brickwork, and exposed iron beams, offers significant defensive value.
Anyway, the logistics being attacked was first the oil refineries, which has made for some hilarious petrol shortages in an OPEC member. People lining up for miles at fuel stations, lol. But with that largely done, they moved on to new logistics centers: Russia's version of Amazon and Ali Express, the warehouses of Wildberries and Ozon. In addition to the vast array of household items and media, they also sell parts and defense gear, just like Amazon. And they do storage for the military. Either of which makes them a legal target. (Russia has retaliated by targeting supermarket warehouses, which is kinda not the same.)
Meanwhile, we've gone through a whole political scandal in Ukraine, which I will summarize somewhat pithily. Zelensky dismissed Mykhailo Fedorov from the job of Defense Minister, because the reformer was really pissing off the old army with its legacy of Soviet-trained leadership. Zelensky presumably looked at both sides of the coin, and decided Federov was the one being the most annoying (and most likely to challenge Zelensky politically) so he picked Federov to go. His reforms and the drone tactics were really working, so people got really upset, and did massive street protests for his reinstatement.
So Zelensky reversed but only a little bit. He offered Federov a different job. How about Minister of Administrative Affairs? Nope, he wouldn't take any job other than Defense. Big Z tried to mollify the crowd by appointing a different reformer and Defense Minister. People were still upset. They confirmed the new Defense Minister anyway. Finally, Federov spoke out this week and called for snap elections in Ukraine. Maybe vote on cell phones or something? And then the next day the protesters evaporated, the protest leaders disowned Federov. A step too far. Elections right now are stupid; Russians will literally and figuratively target the polls, with billions, bribes, and bombs. Everyone knows this. Except the guy Zelensky fired for being too ambitious. Democracy isn't just elections, it's protesting, listening to the people, but making tough decisions anyway. This is a healthy democracy.
Americans might not recognize a healthy democracy when they see one. Or a healthy military, for that matter. Ukrainian drones wipe out entire US tank brigade in live war game. When you have to respawn an entire brigade in the first few hours of the game, maybe your doctrine is wrong? See also: the War of American Aggression in Iran.
One of the Ukrainians that Germany accused of bombing the Nord Stream pipeline was asked to be extradited from Poland, whereupon the Polish courts were like "nah bombing Russian shit is fair play." He then got a role consulting on a movie about the bombing of the pipeline, so he ended up in Croatia. Germany is trying to extradite him a second time from there, when another EU member has already denied extradition. Which will set a fun new precedent either way!
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto