From: Jinxie (Jinx999@hotmail.vega.fen)
To: Operation FIREFALL Mailing List (firefall@sovietairforce.fen)
Date: November 23, 2016
Subj: [FIREFALL] Economics
OK, O got the message asking about the economic effect of this mess and I'll try to summarise. You'll get a fuller report later, but it'll have a lot of technical verbiage, guesses and speculation. (and arguments about the free market and socialism, to no body's great surprise.)
First, the US dollar is currently in freefall and US government bonds are worth zip. If your savings were in these nice safe investments, you're in deep trouble. Guess what the Chinese government used to invest in? I'm diversified (and never was American), so only took a moderate hit, but some friends are in trouble. A lot of share prices are falling fast as well, even those of non US companies. I expect to see a lot of people investing in gold and precious metals soon, and keeping it in their house when they realise this could happen to anywhere. Speaking of which, I've seen some bets being made that we'll lose Africa for the Draka version, so I'm not going to be getting a restful night's sleep soon.
Second, nobody knows what'll happen to the rest of the world economy, I've seen predictions varying from total collapse to merely a nasty recession, depending on how flexible and adaptable people think it is. My personally guess is that it'll be nasty, but survivable, our "worst depressions" were nothing to the Great Depression, our economic system is a lot more resilient than it was then.
Third, can anyone tell me how self sufficient the 191 US and CSA are? Because they'll have a hell of a time trading with the rest of the world. They basically don't have ANYTHING that can compete at all with the modern world. IIRC, the US was still using draft animals on farms during WWII. They don't have the hugely efficient industrial farms of our US (economically efficient, we don't have time to argue agricultural policy here). They don't have the marketing skills to compete in the organic food market, and I don't think people will be buying much luxury goods atm. They don't have any high tech exports (and the market for classic autos and the like is driven by their rarity and the fact that nobody was making any more), or vast hordes of sweatshop labourers willing to work for a pittance. They don't even have modern efficient mines (remember that the cost of raw materials has been falling over time). And nobody is going to make long term investments in somewhere that might disappear at any time (we hope). This will eventually change, but that'd take years.
To: Operation FIREFALL Mailing List (firefall@sovietairforce.fen)
Date: November 23, 2016
Subj: [FIREFALL] Economics
OK, O got the message asking about the economic effect of this mess and I'll try to summarise. You'll get a fuller report later, but it'll have a lot of technical verbiage, guesses and speculation. (and arguments about the free market and socialism, to no body's great surprise.)
First, the US dollar is currently in freefall and US government bonds are worth zip. If your savings were in these nice safe investments, you're in deep trouble. Guess what the Chinese government used to invest in? I'm diversified (and never was American), so only took a moderate hit, but some friends are in trouble. A lot of share prices are falling fast as well, even those of non US companies. I expect to see a lot of people investing in gold and precious metals soon, and keeping it in their house when they realise this could happen to anywhere. Speaking of which, I've seen some bets being made that we'll lose Africa for the Draka version, so I'm not going to be getting a restful night's sleep soon.
Second, nobody knows what'll happen to the rest of the world economy, I've seen predictions varying from total collapse to merely a nasty recession, depending on how flexible and adaptable people think it is. My personally guess is that it'll be nasty, but survivable, our "worst depressions" were nothing to the Great Depression, our economic system is a lot more resilient than it was then.
Third, can anyone tell me how self sufficient the 191 US and CSA are? Because they'll have a hell of a time trading with the rest of the world. They basically don't have ANYTHING that can compete at all with the modern world. IIRC, the US was still using draft animals on farms during WWII. They don't have the hugely efficient industrial farms of our US (economically efficient, we don't have time to argue agricultural policy here). They don't have the marketing skills to compete in the organic food market, and I don't think people will be buying much luxury goods atm. They don't have any high tech exports (and the market for classic autos and the like is driven by their rarity and the fact that nobody was making any more), or vast hordes of sweatshop labourers willing to work for a pittance. They don't even have modern efficient mines (remember that the cost of raw materials has been falling over time). And nobody is going to make long term investments in somewhere that might disappear at any time (we hope). This will eventually change, but that'd take years.