The real problem for South Korea, and it's been that way since the Korean war ended is that Seoul (both the capital and largest city) is within artilery range of the border and the North Koean artiliery is WELL dug in - artifical caves. I don't believe that you could completely eliminate them, even with something crazy, like ground burst nukes.
While the North Koean army is very large (especially for a country that size) and, reputedly, fanatical, their tech level and command and control are not considered to be very good, which means that in a full scale war, I'd give the victory to South Korea, even though South Korea would lose it's capital city while doing so. South Korea knows this, which is why it really doesn't want a war. I just really hope that the North Korean leadership hasn't been listening to its own propoganda and knows that it wouldn't win. Even if it does have WWII tech nuclear weapons, it would have a hard time delievering something that large and it would not be a war winner.
The detente noises from South Korea aren't really that important. South Korea does want peace with the North, but has very few illusions about the esteemed tosspot and his regime - especially when they launch an attack like this coupled with the usual NK attitude (look at the KCNA (Korean Central News Agency) website sometime). The current goverment in power is led by the party with the more hardline attitude towards the north.
I don't think a hot war is that likely, for reasons given above. If it does, North Korea is the side that will start it. North Korea has threatened war if further sanctions are applied, but this is fairly common for NK (IIRC, they have threatened war over a lack of tourists). I THINK it's bluster, but the government in NK is such a black box, that nobody has much idea what's going inside.
While the North Koean army is very large (especially for a country that size) and, reputedly, fanatical, their tech level and command and control are not considered to be very good, which means that in a full scale war, I'd give the victory to South Korea, even though South Korea would lose it's capital city while doing so. South Korea knows this, which is why it really doesn't want a war. I just really hope that the North Korean leadership hasn't been listening to its own propoganda and knows that it wouldn't win. Even if it does have WWII tech nuclear weapons, it would have a hard time delievering something that large and it would not be a war winner.
The detente noises from South Korea aren't really that important. South Korea does want peace with the North, but has very few illusions about the esteemed tosspot and his regime - especially when they launch an attack like this coupled with the usual NK attitude (look at the KCNA (Korean Central News Agency) website sometime). The current goverment in power is led by the party with the more hardline attitude towards the north.
I don't think a hot war is that likely, for reasons given above. If it does, North Korea is the side that will start it. North Korea has threatened war if further sanctions are applied, but this is fairly common for NK (IIRC, they have threatened war over a lack of tourists). I THINK it's bluster, but the government in NK is such a black box, that nobody has much idea what's going inside.