This was inspired by a National Geographic Channel docudrama called Evacuate Earth, which itself was essentially a dramatization of a thought experiment. The premise was that a neutron star is detected and it is soon learned that it will impact the Earth in 75 years. Earth, and everything on it, will not survive such an impact. Humanity has no way to prevent the impact. The only option left: evacuate Earth for another planet.
The problems to be faced are:
(1.) Where do we go? The neutron star is going to wreak havoc with the Solar System for somewhere between one and two centuries, which will make the entire system unsafe for humanity to live in. The only other option is to find an Earth-like exoplanet and colonize it. However, we first have to find such a planet, then determine whether it would actually be livable for humans.
(2.) How would we get there? Until now, only a few humans have been to space, and none much further than the Moon. Now we're going to have to take a large number of people out of the Solar System entirely--which won't be an easy task. It'll require the use of new technology, much of which had heretofore remained mainly in the theoretical stage, in order to make it happen. And remember, we have a deadline of less than a century...
(3.) Who should go? Given that we're going to have to push the limits of technology very far in a short time, we most certainly cannot move everyone off of the Earth. Indeed, we won't be able to get even one tenth of one percent of the human population off of Earth in time. In addition, there are a number of other complications to deal with: figuring out how many people could be taken to allow the genetic survival of the human race, identifying people who (for various reasons) could pose a risk to themselves/others (and would thus be unable to go), providing food and water for large numbers of people for the long length of time it would take to get to a destination, etc.
In the show, it is ultimately decided to build a generation ship using a design similar to a Stanford torus, which holds 250,000 people on board and is powered by an Orion-type drive that accelerates the craft to 0.07c. The destination chosen is an Earth-like planet found orbiting Barnard's Star, around 80 years' travel time from Earth.
Now, for our own take on that thought experiment:
Let's say that, sometime in the 2010s in the Fenspace verse (Fenverse?), a neutron star is spotted and its trajectory plotted, which reveals that it will hit the Earth in 75 years. Keep in mind the same problem in that the Solar System will become a dangerous place for humanity until the neutron star has safely left, and that this will not be for another 150-200 years or so. However, Fenspace has technology that will allow far more people to leave, as well as colonies already set up on other exoplanets by this time.
So now the questions become:
(1.) Can we evacuate everyone that's still in the Solar System, within three-quarters of a century or less?
(2.) If not, then what is the maximum number that we can save in time?
(3.) Can the colonies we've already set up elsewhere be able to support so many refugees?
(4.) If not, then can those habitable planets that we've not yet colonized be able to support those that the already-established colonies cannot?
Let's try to find out the answers to these questions...
The problems to be faced are:
(1.) Where do we go? The neutron star is going to wreak havoc with the Solar System for somewhere between one and two centuries, which will make the entire system unsafe for humanity to live in. The only other option is to find an Earth-like exoplanet and colonize it. However, we first have to find such a planet, then determine whether it would actually be livable for humans.
(2.) How would we get there? Until now, only a few humans have been to space, and none much further than the Moon. Now we're going to have to take a large number of people out of the Solar System entirely--which won't be an easy task. It'll require the use of new technology, much of which had heretofore remained mainly in the theoretical stage, in order to make it happen. And remember, we have a deadline of less than a century...
(3.) Who should go? Given that we're going to have to push the limits of technology very far in a short time, we most certainly cannot move everyone off of the Earth. Indeed, we won't be able to get even one tenth of one percent of the human population off of Earth in time. In addition, there are a number of other complications to deal with: figuring out how many people could be taken to allow the genetic survival of the human race, identifying people who (for various reasons) could pose a risk to themselves/others (and would thus be unable to go), providing food and water for large numbers of people for the long length of time it would take to get to a destination, etc.
In the show, it is ultimately decided to build a generation ship using a design similar to a Stanford torus, which holds 250,000 people on board and is powered by an Orion-type drive that accelerates the craft to 0.07c. The destination chosen is an Earth-like planet found orbiting Barnard's Star, around 80 years' travel time from Earth.
Now, for our own take on that thought experiment:
Let's say that, sometime in the 2010s in the Fenspace verse (Fenverse?), a neutron star is spotted and its trajectory plotted, which reveals that it will hit the Earth in 75 years. Keep in mind the same problem in that the Solar System will become a dangerous place for humanity until the neutron star has safely left, and that this will not be for another 150-200 years or so. However, Fenspace has technology that will allow far more people to leave, as well as colonies already set up on other exoplanets by this time.
So now the questions become:
(1.) Can we evacuate everyone that's still in the Solar System, within three-quarters of a century or less?
(2.) If not, then what is the maximum number that we can save in time?
(3.) Can the colonies we've already set up elsewhere be able to support so many refugees?
(4.) If not, then can those habitable planets that we've not yet colonized be able to support those that the already-established colonies cannot?
Let's try to find out the answers to these questions...