The Imperial Presidency, Part 2

[Labster]

It has been a full year since Trump was inaugurated now.  And of course, in the middle of "inauguration" is "augur".  So it's time to consider my predictions from the past, and read the entrails which are all that remain of our democracy.



These predictions were supposed to be a little "out there" -- basically, implausible things that are only just plausible because these people are both idiotic and evil.  I'll go through each of them.

1. Nuclear armed Falcon 9: This was more of an Elon Musk note about how people have called him a supervillain, and it is about Trump.  Certainly the integration with corporate, state, and military power did increase, but not in this way.  Nope.
   
2. "Marbury v. Madison was wrongly decided" would have been equivalent to the Supreme Court admitting that it had no authority over the government.  A member of the Court's minority has written her opinion about the court This is Calvinball jurisprudence with a twist. Calvinball has only one rule: There are no fixed rules. We seem to have two: that one, and this Administration always wins. Effectively happened.
   
3. Trump on Mount Rushmore: Trump likes monuments, and he likes himself even more.  A bill was introduced in Congress, but since it's geologically improbable, nothing happened.  Compare What we know about White House plans for an 'Arc de Trump' and the White House Ballroom under construction.  Kinda, but not really.
   
4. Sanctuary city officials charged with obstruction.  It's not a city, but Judge Who Helped Illegal Escape From ICE Convicted Of Felony Obstruction. Threats have been made against cities as well.  True.
   
5. Ambassador Steven Seagall: Basically the idea that a pro-Russia sympathizer would be appointed as ambassador.  Surprisingly, Trump's actions haven't been particularly pro-Russia, only insofar as he's anti-cooperation and anti-empathy in general.  But the ambassadors have been generally terrible.  Just not enough to make this true.  No.
   
6. CBS loses broadcast license: Threatened by Trump repeatedly, CBS was instead bought by a man known for his impressions of being a human being, Larry Ellison.  Bari Weiss is the new leader of CBS News, based on her experience of having a website and running in conservative circles.  Functionally, they now have limits on how much they can criticize Trump.  Insofar as CBS now publishes sourceless pro-regime propaganda: True.
   
7. Swastikas are the new black: Taken as I am on how Trump does trumpery and red hats spread hat-red, I thought I might as well bet on no subtlety at all.  While there have been some edge cases like Trump declaring some people not Jews, or this: ‘I love Hitler’: Leaked messages expose Young Republicans’ racist chat – most racism is still hidden as messages about immigrants and, oddly, antisemitism.  Not yet.
   
8. Vaccine banned: MAHA forces have found it difficult to drive vaccine bans through a department staffed by trained medics.  They have managed to make it much more difficult for infants to get six vaccines.  In progress.
   
9. Demolition to build Gaz-a-Lago: Trump once bragged about how he would clean up and make a resort on the Gaza coast, once the Palestinians were "gone".  If you've read about the "Board of Peace" above (sorry Canada, you're NOT INVITED) led by Trump to rebuild Gaza, I'm not fairly sure that this is going to happen.  In progress.
   
10. US Postal Service privatized: Nah, this didn't happen, though other countries like Canada and Denmark have made/will make major changes to postal delivery.  No.
    
11. Central Park Five resentenced to execution: Trump liked to bash these dangerous criminals, released from prison due to a finding of actual and total innocence, as being too dangerous to live.  Sadly for my bingo, Trump has found newer targets to miscarry justice upon, like Minnesota soccer moms.  No.
    
12. Proud Boys become part of Homeland Security.  This one was inspired by old Adolf, who created the SS as paramilitary street gangs, brought them in government, then merged the normal police into the SS.  This is why people like Arnold Schwarzenegger's father was in the SS, when he was just a policeman doing normal police things.  Anyway, ICE has been greatly expanded, and they're hiring a bunch of people who are, well, the kind of people who want to be ICE agents right now. How Kristi Noem turned ICE into the Proud Boys.  True.
    
13. Tariffs (free space):  My God, it's full of tariffs!  True.
    
14.  Purge of "disloyal" generals: There has been no "saturday night massacre" type event in this other Nazi playbook thing, but there have been a few events. The Secretary of War (lol) did warn any officer who had second thoughts about Trump to resign, and the general in charge of the Western Hemisphere did so prior to our strike on Venezuela.  Already begun.
    
15. Explosion in DC leads to crackdown: This is essentially an analogue to several Nazi events, particularly the Reichstag fire.  This particular thing didn't happen, but you can see traces of it like in the killing of Renee Good in Minnesota, which is being used by the government right now in order to inflame tensions, not to reduce tensions.  Not yet.
    
16. Open season on wolves: A long-time conservative bugaboo, verging on primal fears and rich ranchers complaining about lost product, I thought this would obviously happen.  So far as I can tell, it has not.  Between the government shutdown, defunding of wildlife departments, and conservative hunters actually liking healthy ecosystems now, very little has happened other than defunding DEI programs like the environment, or whatevs.  Nope.
    
17. "Unsolved" murder of judge.  A shot in the dark.  I thought this era would be more Tom Clancy, instead we got a babbling baby demanding his Greenland, because boats don't matter.  Nope.
    
18. Department of Education dissolved: While I don't believe Congress has given the final authorization for this, most programs have shut down or will be transferred elsewhere. Yes.
    
19. Over 100 American citizens deported.  I thought there would be mistakes in the mass round-ups.  But not yet, I guess. Certainly, this many citizens have been detained by ICE.  Certainly, they're making efforts to denaturalize immigrants, but haven't done much yet, likely due to incompetence and general churn at the DOJ.  Not yet.
    
20. Flag burning criminalized. Technically protected speech in America, but... Trump signs executive order to prosecute US flag burning and yesterday Executive Order Banning Flag-Burning Jeopardizes Flag-Burner's Prosecution for Illegal Fire Lighting in National Park.  True.
    
21. Song of the South released: Okay this one was kind of a joke about how Disney won't re-release its somewhat racist (in an Uncle Tom way) movie, and how racism will make a comeback.  Again, racism still seems targeted at immigrants, for now.  Though you do get stories about Native Americans being stopped by ICE for looking like they don't belong in America.  No way.
    
22. Machias Seal Island illegally occupied by Canada.  This was a joke about how Trump would take the once piece of land disputed with Canada, and blow it up into an international crisis.  Instead he, uh, said he wanted all of Canada, then he didn't, and then threatened to start a war to conquer Greenland.  Not dumb enough to be realistic.
    
23. Unisex bathroom ban.  Another conservative bugaboo, the transes, this one was designed to be a dumb solution to an invented problem.  Unlike the previous answer, this one was too dumb.  Oh well, you win some, you lose some.  Nope.
    
24. Economic recession: I only included this one, because technically you need more than a year to get into a depression.  The economy is getting really strange -- the high end hasn't even felt any pain, where those making under $100k a year have drastically cut back spending.  There appears to be an AI bubble propping up the economy.  Certainly, tariffs have made most sectors of the global economy suffer.  Barely, I guess.
    
25. No one left to implement executive order: Essentially a joke on how many people have been cut by DOGE.  And then later some are rehired, or their dismissal was reversed by a court. In general, government departments have shown less capacity to do things afterwards, making this box kinda true, but at a level that's too obvious to really count as a prediction.  I guess not.
    

I don't think I got a bingo for 2025, though I did mark a lot of boxes.  Better luck next year!  I'll come up with a new card soon.

[robkelk]

Mark Carney got a standing ovation from the money-men in attendance.

Only three people have been given a standing ovation in that room: Nelson Mandela, Володимир Зеленський, and now Mark Carney.

[Labster]

Mark Carney got a standing ovation from the money-men in attendance.

Only three people have been given a standing ovation in that room: Nelson Mandela, Володимир Зеленський, and now Mark Carney.

Trump has now threatened 100% tariffs on Canada.  The leader of the free world, Mark Carney, has not yet responded.

Also ICE shot another terrorist immigrant in Minnesota dead.  It turns out that he was a ICU nurse working at a government veterans hospital.  He was openly carrying a gun under his open carry license, proving his intent.  This goes to show you that they're everywhere.  If you see someone on the street acting in any manner whatsoever, please report to your nearest ICE office. Remember, Night Watch, I mean ICE, are the guys you can trust.