RE: No Time to Die... from COVID-19
03-31-2020, 07:32 PM (This post was last modified: 03-31-2020, 07:46 PM by hazard.)
03-31-2020, 07:32 PM (This post was last modified: 03-31-2020, 07:46 PM by hazard.)
It's been anticipated in the local news for a while now, but the Netherlands are extending its social distancing regulations to April 28th, another 22 days from the previous April 6th date.
The RIVM has also switched its public data tracking on the map from 'number of cases known' to 'number of cases hospitalized' in what is to me a pretty clear attempt to make the current administration look more capable by using a lower number.
Current total and today's numbers are:
12 595 infected (845 today)
4 712 hospitalized (722 today)
1 039 deceased (175 today)
We are seeing a slowdown in the rate of infection here in the Netherlands, so at least the regulations in place to slow the rate of infections are working.
Testing is still not comprehensive, but a few clever boffins have figured out that they can detect COVID-19 particles in sewage water. While this won't tell them who is infected, they can use this to figure out a rough estimate of how much of a given watershed is infected and if the number of infected is rising or shrinking.
Regarding PPE: A part of that is how in the modern economy you generally want to keep your stocks as low as possible, as the just-in-time economy can deliver a box of new supplies in a couple of days. Unfortunately, while that works perfectly well for things with an always steady demand and supply, it's very vulnerable to sudden surges in demand and drops in supply. Like you are seeing here and now, with the COVID-19 outbreak. It would be less bad if hospitals kept larger stocks of PPE.
During the ebola outbreak we'd have seen something similar if it wasn't for the fact that ebola has a very short incubation time, patients are infectious only for a very short time and IIRC not before they develop symptoms, that symptoms are obvious and debilitating and that ebola is very difficult to transmit to another. All of which combine into a disease that, while nasty, can be quarantined and isolated effectively and easily.
COVID-19 however has an incubation time of 14 days or more, it's infectious during that incubation time, it is very easy to transmit, and most insidious of all a large section of the population develops either no symptoms despite being infected and infectious, or has mild symptoms that may be confused for the flu or common cold. This is not a disease that's easy to isolate and quarantine, which means it'll spread and that more of the world will need PPE for longer.
The RIVM has also switched its public data tracking on the map from 'number of cases known' to 'number of cases hospitalized' in what is to me a pretty clear attempt to make the current administration look more capable by using a lower number.
Current total and today's numbers are:
12 595 infected (845 today)
4 712 hospitalized (722 today)
1 039 deceased (175 today)
We are seeing a slowdown in the rate of infection here in the Netherlands, so at least the regulations in place to slow the rate of infections are working.
Testing is still not comprehensive, but a few clever boffins have figured out that they can detect COVID-19 particles in sewage water. While this won't tell them who is infected, they can use this to figure out a rough estimate of how much of a given watershed is infected and if the number of infected is rising or shrinking.
Regarding PPE: A part of that is how in the modern economy you generally want to keep your stocks as low as possible, as the just-in-time economy can deliver a box of new supplies in a couple of days. Unfortunately, while that works perfectly well for things with an always steady demand and supply, it's very vulnerable to sudden surges in demand and drops in supply. Like you are seeing here and now, with the COVID-19 outbreak. It would be less bad if hospitals kept larger stocks of PPE.
During the ebola outbreak we'd have seen something similar if it wasn't for the fact that ebola has a very short incubation time, patients are infectious only for a very short time and IIRC not before they develop symptoms, that symptoms are obvious and debilitating and that ebola is very difficult to transmit to another. All of which combine into a disease that, while nasty, can be quarantined and isolated effectively and easily.
COVID-19 however has an incubation time of 14 days or more, it's infectious during that incubation time, it is very easy to transmit, and most insidious of all a large section of the population develops either no symptoms despite being infected and infectious, or has mild symptoms that may be confused for the flu or common cold. This is not a disease that's easy to isolate and quarantine, which means it'll spread and that more of the world will need PPE for longer.