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Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#1
The so-called “nation” of Afghanistan has collapsed faster than a Florida apartment building. Might as well discuss it, because it’s a big historical turning point.

Lots of people are blaming Biden but I don’t see any other countries stepping up to provide security against the Taliban. Nor an explanation of how a winning strategy would have worked.

You Can’t Buy a Cause: Examining the roots of the Afghanistan forces’ collapse.
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto
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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#2
Honestly, I would have been surprised if anything else had happened. The British during the Raj, the Soviets before they collapsed, and the USA now - go in, set up a government the people going in like, eventually pull out for whatever reason, and the locals go back to living the way they want to live. Violently, in at least two of those three cases.

EDIT: Doesn't mean I like it, just that I expected it.
--
Rob Kelk

Sticks and stones can break your bones,
But words can break your heart.
- unknown
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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#3
It's a tribal nation, the only way you can "rule" is if you go the Baathist strategy ala Hussein/Qaddafi/Assad as a full on dictatorship.

Americans as per usual take 2 decades to cut losses.
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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#4
Watched a video of an airplane taking off with people are riding on the landing gear doors and clinging to every opening trying to get in.

Then saw a video of the same plane flying, already well over a thousand feet in the air and probably going beyond 200 knots.  People were still riding that thing as it climbed up. Right up until the pilot calls 'gear up' and - well, the dot-like riders returned to Kabul on their own.

---

As it is, I'm sort of left sitting with an overwhelming sense of inevitability to it all

Well, you wanted the war to end, that's what it looks like. It would've looked the same 10 years ago and 10 years hence. Unless you choose to stay forever, and accept the cost of that both in soldiers and Afghani lives.





I love the smell of rotaries in the morning. You know one time, I got to work early, before the rush hour. I walked through the empty carpark, I didn't see one bloody Prius or Golf. And that smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole carpark, smelled like.... ....speed.

One day they're going to ban them.
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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#5
i'll admit, i was not exactly happy that we stayed as long as we did in Afghanistan. When we went in, it was supposed to be simple, go in, kill Bin Laden, get out, no nation building. But then we did stay, and i said when we did, "Its going to take at least 50 years of occupation to turn that place around. I do not see the US population supporting that." The reason i said that is that like in Germany, (post WWII) we had to stick around with at least an armored division to keep an eye on the local government so that the wrong think of Naziism did not raise its ugly head again, (nor communism sneak through the border, though honestly i think we arguably failed on that one) and it takes a minimum of three generations to get the old ideas out of circulation, to get people to understand that, yes, Grandpa might have done things that way, but this isn't grandpa's time anymore and quite frankly, grandpa is a little crazy anyway. As much as you hated Trump, he had bench marks, and no fear about dropping more troops in the area if he thought they were needed. Biden has turned this into a shit show by pulling out the troops ahead of the civilians.
Wolf wins every fight but the one where he dies, fangs locked around the throat of his opponent. 
Currently writing BROBd

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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#6
Trump calls Afghanistan withdrawal 'a wonderful and positive thing to do' and criticizes Biden's timeline as too slow

Once again, Trump proves his own defenders wrong but thanks for playing. For what it’s worth I think Trump’s withdrawal would have been the same level of bad as Biden’s, because the same military decision makers would have failed to ask the same essential question: But what if things turn out much worse than we expect?

Either way, we learned that both Democrats and Republicans and Labour and Tories engaged in a long term nation building program and collectively produced a failed state.
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto
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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#7
(08-20-2021, 09:15 PM)Rajvik Wrote: i'll admit, i was not exactly happy that we stayed as long as we did in Afghanistan. When we went in, it was supposed to be simple, go in, kill Bin Laden, get out, no nation building. But then we did stay, and i said when we did, "Its going to take at least 50 years of occupation to turn that place around. I do not see the US population supporting that." The reason i said that is that like in Germany, (post WWII) we had to stick around with at least an armored division to keep an eye on the local government so that the wrong think of Naziism did not raise its ugly head again, (nor communism sneak through the border, though honestly i think we arguably failed on that one) and it takes a minimum of three generations to get the old ideas out of circulation, to get people to understand that, yes, Grandpa might have done things that way, but this isn't grandpa's time anymore and quite frankly, grandpa is a little crazy anyway. As much as you hated Trump, he had bench marks, and no fear about dropping more troops in the area if he thought they were needed. Biden has turned this into a shit show by pulling out the troops ahead of the civilians.

Point of order....  Modern Germany is about as anti-communist as they come. If anything, it can be argued that this standing was the cause of a lot of economic trouble about 10-12 years ago

Also. The situation on Germany, is and was somewhat different from the situation in Afghanistan. For one thing, Germany was fully industrialised with an already existing social framework for central government and governance. For one thing - there was minimal post-war insurgencies.

Anyway, lingering in Afghanistan to raise a few generations for, oh, 60 years or so, is deadly close to Colonising the shit out of the place.

Staying was bad.
The Withdrawal plan was bad
You're either staying forever, or never leaving.

Also. When the British Army left Ireland in the 1920's --- a Civil War followed. The State --- with minimal resources --- more or less squashed it. The Afghan Government just sort of.... chose not to exist. There're some fighters starting to fight back against the Taliban on their own and people protesting them on the street.

Maybe they'll solve the problem themselves.

I love the smell of rotaries in the morning. You know one time, I got to work early, before the rush hour. I walked through the empty carpark, I didn't see one bloody Prius or Golf. And that smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole carpark, smelled like.... ....speed.

One day they're going to ban them.
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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#8
Beau of fifth Column - Let's talk about the Saigon analogy...
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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#9
I think the analogy holds, in its broadest terms. As Beau said, it's a political loss, but the political situation was similar.  We used our military might to prop up a highly corrupt government.  I don't think of the analogy corresponding to a military loss at all -- it's about a rapid political collapse that requires a impromptu, disorganized military evacuation.

I also disagree with him on it as establishing an American Empire -- I think it's that our country fundamentally does not understand how to build a polity that is not like ourselves. Our military leaders really only only understand how to build a modern system army.  You know, the kind that takes billions of dollars and high levels of commitment from volunteer soldiers.  What they need is a much cheaper army, built like US during the Civil War, or maybe like modern Colombia.  Drones are cool but sometimes you just need armed men to stand in a line.

Similarly, we tried nation building.  But Afghanistan has never been a nation.  The model we should have tried was a confederation of tribes, instead we gave them a President and tried to build central authority, because that's easier to understand.  The only way to make them like us is the tried and true century of colonialism.  But even the British Raj never bothered, because there's nothing there really worth fighting over.

How not a nation is Afghanistan?  Well, in the past 100 years, Afghanistan has had 25 different national flags.  The new Taliban is promising that they're kinder and gentler, that they no longer see the world in black and white.  Well, this is their flag:

[Image: Flag_of_Taliban.svg]
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto
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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#10
(08-26-2021, 03:19 PM)Labster Wrote: The new Taliban is promising that they're kinder and gentler,

Reuters: Afghanistan's universities now officially segregated by sex

Their actions show what their promises are worth.
--
Rob Kelk

Sticks and stones can break your bones,
But words can break your heart.
- unknown
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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#11
They think they're following through on those promises.

IIRC, last time they went and destroyed everything more complex than a lightbulb, intentionally setting the country back into the iron age.
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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#12
(09-13-2021, 08:25 AM)robkelk Wrote: Reuters: Afghanistan's universities now officially segregated by sex

Their actions show what their promises are worth.

I believe last time they forbade female education completely . . . .
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RE: Fall of Saigon 2: Islamic Boogaloo
#13
Give it time, Jinx
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