RE: Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country
04-17-2022, 05:51 AM
04-17-2022, 05:51 AM
-- Russia demands surrender of Mariupol, for like the tenth time, by Sunday morning
-- Dawn passes with no surrender, for like the tenth time
-- Russian victory parade still planned for May 9. Don't these people know about deadlines?
-- Speaking of dead, they're still finding dead bodies everywhere still
-- UN expects 5 million Ukranians are now homeless, due to sudden lack of house
'Fortress in a city': Ukrainians cling on at steel plant in MariupolThe 36th Ukranian Marines have managed to Azov Regiment, which are defending the fortress of Mariupol: Azovstal, the Azov Steel plant. It really is a fortress, with square miles of heavy buildings, machinery, and of course kilometers of tunnels. This is the single most valuable area on the Sea of Azov, and also the most defensible. If any place gets hit by a tactical nuclear weapon in this war, it's here -- will Russian frustration outweigh Russian greed?
One thing I've been thinking about lately is the interactions behind the sinking of the Moksva. First of all, It's also the first warship to sink in 40 years, since the General Belgrano sunk in the Falklands War. The Moskva sunk even despite carrying a piece of the True Cross. Perhaps the flame of the Holy Spirit got too close to the ammunition? But also, the Russian navy seems to want to blame everyone but Ukraine for sinking the ship. A fire broke out, then it spread to ammunition placed in the wrong place, then the tug boats couldn't get it back in a stormy sea (fact check: calm sea). So really it was the fault of those stupid conscripts.
This is really interesting to me sociologically. Because in America, claiming that the enemy got us would be the gut reaction -- the safest, because it outsourced the harm to the enemy. But somehow, Ukraine is full of big scary Nazis who also can't possibly sink a ship because they're weaklings. And so it becomes safer to say that it was your own people's incompetence. From our military perspective, the implications are profoundly worse, because it means your navy (and army) are simply not prepared for the war they're already in -- and preparation is entirely in your control in a war of choice. Obviously Russian military culture assumes a level of incompetence that makes it, well, bad at being a modern army.
This preparation gap extends to the very basics: trucks. What images of Russian trucks say about its military's struggles in Ukraine. Mainly, they say Russia is bad at logistics. Tires have to be deflated to go over rough roads, but the tires are in such bad shape that deflating cause them to crack. Probably from corruption. Conscripts gather round to load the ammo into a truck, then another group gathers to unload the ammo. No forklifts are used, and everything is arranged manually, so it takes forever. Since the trucks keep breaking down, they're getting civilian trucks, which aren't built to handle rough roads at all. Anyway I guess the conscripts can walk.
So why is Ukraine different? The Secret of Ukraine’s Military Success: Years of NATO Training (WSJ). So it turns out that we've spent the last eight years training the folks fighting Russians -- and getting intel back on what it is like to fight Russians. In 2016, Ukraine and Russia had fundamentally the same army, basically a Stalin-era army. Both Poroshenko and Zelensky supported the effort to reform the military, and reform it they did. They introduced things like civilian oversight of the military, and apprently, NCOs. Because no one ever thought to give any authority to someone who wasn't an officer in the Soviet days. Fighting Russians with Western doctrine and weapons (some anyway) is enough to let a small force repel a much larger one. Meanwhile the Russians are back in the 1800s with top down command, the classic raping & pillaging combo, and atrocities to suppress the locals.
I'm starting to feel like the protracted war predicted in the beginning is not going to unfold. Europe and the US seem comfortable sending heavy weapons to Ukraine now, and it looks like Ukraine is going to hold a substantial portion of its land without problem. Zelensky has been saying that the more atrocities he sees the other side committed, the less he wants to seek peace with Russia. I'm starting to wonder if WWI style stalemate is still plausible. Russian infantry is barely mechanized, and Ukraine can't really project power beyond its border.
-- Dawn passes with no surrender, for like the tenth time
-- Russian victory parade still planned for May 9. Don't these people know about deadlines?
-- Speaking of dead, they're still finding dead bodies everywhere still
-- UN expects 5 million Ukranians are now homeless, due to sudden lack of house
'Fortress in a city': Ukrainians cling on at steel plant in MariupolThe 36th Ukranian Marines have managed to Azov Regiment, which are defending the fortress of Mariupol: Azovstal, the Azov Steel plant. It really is a fortress, with square miles of heavy buildings, machinery, and of course kilometers of tunnels. This is the single most valuable area on the Sea of Azov, and also the most defensible. If any place gets hit by a tactical nuclear weapon in this war, it's here -- will Russian frustration outweigh Russian greed?
One thing I've been thinking about lately is the interactions behind the sinking of the Moksva. First of all, It's also the first warship to sink in 40 years, since the General Belgrano sunk in the Falklands War. The Moskva sunk even despite carrying a piece of the True Cross. Perhaps the flame of the Holy Spirit got too close to the ammunition? But also, the Russian navy seems to want to blame everyone but Ukraine for sinking the ship. A fire broke out, then it spread to ammunition placed in the wrong place, then the tug boats couldn't get it back in a stormy sea (fact check: calm sea). So really it was the fault of those stupid conscripts.
This is really interesting to me sociologically. Because in America, claiming that the enemy got us would be the gut reaction -- the safest, because it outsourced the harm to the enemy. But somehow, Ukraine is full of big scary Nazis who also can't possibly sink a ship because they're weaklings. And so it becomes safer to say that it was your own people's incompetence. From our military perspective, the implications are profoundly worse, because it means your navy (and army) are simply not prepared for the war they're already in -- and preparation is entirely in your control in a war of choice. Obviously Russian military culture assumes a level of incompetence that makes it, well, bad at being a modern army.
This preparation gap extends to the very basics: trucks. What images of Russian trucks say about its military's struggles in Ukraine. Mainly, they say Russia is bad at logistics. Tires have to be deflated to go over rough roads, but the tires are in such bad shape that deflating cause them to crack. Probably from corruption. Conscripts gather round to load the ammo into a truck, then another group gathers to unload the ammo. No forklifts are used, and everything is arranged manually, so it takes forever. Since the trucks keep breaking down, they're getting civilian trucks, which aren't built to handle rough roads at all. Anyway I guess the conscripts can walk.
So why is Ukraine different? The Secret of Ukraine’s Military Success: Years of NATO Training (WSJ). So it turns out that we've spent the last eight years training the folks fighting Russians -- and getting intel back on what it is like to fight Russians. In 2016, Ukraine and Russia had fundamentally the same army, basically a Stalin-era army. Both Poroshenko and Zelensky supported the effort to reform the military, and reform it they did. They introduced things like civilian oversight of the military, and apprently, NCOs. Because no one ever thought to give any authority to someone who wasn't an officer in the Soviet days. Fighting Russians with Western doctrine and weapons (some anyway) is enough to let a small force repel a much larger one. Meanwhile the Russians are back in the 1800s with top down command, the classic raping & pillaging combo, and atrocities to suppress the locals.
I'm starting to feel like the protracted war predicted in the beginning is not going to unfold. Europe and the US seem comfortable sending heavy weapons to Ukraine now, and it looks like Ukraine is going to hold a substantial portion of its land without problem. Zelensky has been saying that the more atrocities he sees the other side committed, the less he wants to seek peace with Russia. I'm starting to wonder if WWI style stalemate is still plausible. Russian infantry is barely mechanized, and Ukraine can't really project power beyond its border.
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto