RE: Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country
07-23-2022, 06:07 AM
07-23-2022, 06:07 AM
I don't know. What you're saying sounds right, but then I think about how they've gotten us liberals mostly convinced that somehow a lab leak didn't happen and is totally unscientific as a theory, and it's just coincidental that a novel coronavirus from 500 miles south just happened to appear in the same city as a coronavirus research institute with furin cleavages just right to infect humans. People actually start to believe the bullshit.
Though this kind of thing has been done for thousands of years: portraying the enemy as monstrously strong means more glory if you win, gives you an excuse if you lose, and dehumanizes the enemy in the meantime.
Anyway, it does rather feel like it's the turning point in the war. I'm not sure how logical it is, but it feels to me like Ukraine is going to start winning the war soon. As an armchair general, it looks to me like Russia did not execute its military doctrine, and in the cases where it managed to apply its own doctrine, it was only ever marginally effective at high cost. As a On-my-rear Admiral, it does look like their naval doctrine of "run away when people start shooting at us" is working, though.
-- US intelligence estimates 85% of Russia's forces have been committed to Ukraine. Even if it's an overestimate, they do not seem to have sufficient reserves to launch new offensives.
-- It appears the Russian offensive did culminate in Seiverodonetsk
-- Russia is having major supplies problems after HIMARS blew up a lot of large ammunition depots.
-- Why so large? Well, Russian supplies are still highly dependent on rail -- for one, their military trucks hardly work.
-- Why so easy to find these ammo dumps? Free NATO intelligence and satellites.
-- HIMARS, a system designed to bypass Russian anti-air/missile-defense capabilities, seems to do really well at bypassing defense. Thing is so damn fast you might have a minute or two total flight time
-- Russian logistics appear on the edge of collapse. This article has lots of gems, like
---- the fact that the artillery barrels are wearing out because they used low-grade steel, because after the Crimea sanctions they couldn't import good steel.
---- armor arriving at the front doesn't actually work, because of maintenance issues
---- ammo dumps being destroyed has doubled the convoy time by trucks
---- Ukranian army believes mid-August will be the middle of Ukraine's counter-offensive
---- tank factories in Russia are concentrating on deliveries to foreign countries, because Russia is not "at war" and because parts are so scarce they need to fulfill the contracts first.
-- Supposedly Russia is losing soldiers to death and desertion faster than they are recruiting.
-- The pipeline to get new soldiers is pretty fast too! Aftenposten published a story (in Norwegian) on one mans' journey
---- Recently divorced guy thinks his ex will take him back if he joins the army and kills "fascists"
---- On May 12, he went to the registration office in St. Petersburg. That same evening, he and his fellow soldiers were flown to Belgorod.
---- On May 13, he received a weapon. "Mom I'm busy, I got a gun," he told his mother in their last phone call.
---- On May 14, he sent pictures of himself and his fellow soldiers from a military base in Valuyki. They were sent straight to the front in Ukraine. Without training. With old equipment.
---- On May 16, Yevgenij was killed at the front by artillery fire - just four days after he volunteered.
---- They have some other examples -- men being sent to the front lines 2-3 days after volunteering is SOP
-- Russia signs deal allow safe export of Ukrainian grain, sends rockets to Odesa the next day just to show dickishness
-- A muslim and a jew hiding in the same foxhole. Neither are atheists.
-- Ukrainian army casualties have dropped by two-thirds in the past couple weeks
-- Actually, the Russian Economy Is Imploding. It's more illustrative to look at the economic data Russia is no longer publishing regularly, than the stuff that comes out now.
-- Chinese are buying Russian oil at $35/barrel discount. Oil is expensive right now, except for Russian oil with a one-third discount.
-- US Speaker of the House says she wants Biden to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism (which it is), or Congress is going to do it for him. Functionally what that would mean is that businesses that haven't left Russia already could lose a lot of their investments.
-- Some dudes declared a jihad on Russia in Chechnya. Unclear if this is a real thing or just some dudes making a Youtube video.
-- Russia wants an humanitarian corridor to evacuate troops from Kherson, lol.
-- The Ukrainian army is making real progress towards Kherson right now. They have encircled and captured a couple hundred orcs, and are closing in on Kherson itself.
-- Once Kherson falls, Ukraine would be in range of attacking Crimea. Russia would likely pull forces from the Donbas to reinforce the peninsula.
Though this kind of thing has been done for thousands of years: portraying the enemy as monstrously strong means more glory if you win, gives you an excuse if you lose, and dehumanizes the enemy in the meantime.
Anyway, it does rather feel like it's the turning point in the war. I'm not sure how logical it is, but it feels to me like Ukraine is going to start winning the war soon. As an armchair general, it looks to me like Russia did not execute its military doctrine, and in the cases where it managed to apply its own doctrine, it was only ever marginally effective at high cost. As a On-my-rear Admiral, it does look like their naval doctrine of "run away when people start shooting at us" is working, though.
-- US intelligence estimates 85% of Russia's forces have been committed to Ukraine. Even if it's an overestimate, they do not seem to have sufficient reserves to launch new offensives.
-- It appears the Russian offensive did culminate in Seiverodonetsk
-- Russia is having major supplies problems after HIMARS blew up a lot of large ammunition depots.
-- Why so large? Well, Russian supplies are still highly dependent on rail -- for one, their military trucks hardly work.
-- Why so easy to find these ammo dumps? Free NATO intelligence and satellites.
-- HIMARS, a system designed to bypass Russian anti-air/missile-defense capabilities, seems to do really well at bypassing defense. Thing is so damn fast you might have a minute or two total flight time
-- Russian logistics appear on the edge of collapse. This article has lots of gems, like
---- the fact that the artillery barrels are wearing out because they used low-grade steel, because after the Crimea sanctions they couldn't import good steel.
---- armor arriving at the front doesn't actually work, because of maintenance issues
---- ammo dumps being destroyed has doubled the convoy time by trucks
---- Ukranian army believes mid-August will be the middle of Ukraine's counter-offensive
---- tank factories in Russia are concentrating on deliveries to foreign countries, because Russia is not "at war" and because parts are so scarce they need to fulfill the contracts first.
-- Supposedly Russia is losing soldiers to death and desertion faster than they are recruiting.
-- The pipeline to get new soldiers is pretty fast too! Aftenposten published a story (in Norwegian) on one mans' journey
---- Recently divorced guy thinks his ex will take him back if he joins the army and kills "fascists"
---- On May 12, he went to the registration office in St. Petersburg. That same evening, he and his fellow soldiers were flown to Belgorod.
---- On May 13, he received a weapon. "Mom I'm busy, I got a gun," he told his mother in their last phone call.
---- On May 14, he sent pictures of himself and his fellow soldiers from a military base in Valuyki. They were sent straight to the front in Ukraine. Without training. With old equipment.
---- On May 16, Yevgenij was killed at the front by artillery fire - just four days after he volunteered.
---- They have some other examples -- men being sent to the front lines 2-3 days after volunteering is SOP
-- Russia signs deal allow safe export of Ukrainian grain, sends rockets to Odesa the next day just to show dickishness
-- A muslim and a jew hiding in the same foxhole. Neither are atheists.
-- Ukrainian army casualties have dropped by two-thirds in the past couple weeks
-- Actually, the Russian Economy Is Imploding. It's more illustrative to look at the economic data Russia is no longer publishing regularly, than the stuff that comes out now.
-- Chinese are buying Russian oil at $35/barrel discount. Oil is expensive right now, except for Russian oil with a one-third discount.
-- US Speaker of the House says she wants Biden to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism (which it is), or Congress is going to do it for him. Functionally what that would mean is that businesses that haven't left Russia already could lose a lot of their investments.
-- Some dudes declared a jihad on Russia in Chechnya. Unclear if this is a real thing or just some dudes making a Youtube video.
-- Russia wants an humanitarian corridor to evacuate troops from Kherson, lol.
-- The Ukrainian army is making real progress towards Kherson right now. They have encircled and captured a couple hundred orcs, and are closing in on Kherson itself.
-- Once Kherson falls, Ukraine would be in range of attacking Crimea. Russia would likely pull forces from the Donbas to reinforce the peninsula.
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto