Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II

[Labster]

The Institute for the Study of War has been a good resource throughout this entire conflict for getting the big picture on the war of Russian aggression.  Yesterday's post is more or less typical of their daily updates.  Most of it is trying to understand the Russian perspective, presumably because Ukraine is fighting with NATO tactics and intelligence, so the Russian side is the more opaque one to us.

The assessment today is that the entire Russian offensive has culminated.  While Russia continues to make tactical gains -- a village here, a coal mine there -- there is no way for them to get the momentum to build them into strategic gains at this time.  Ukraine's overall strategy continues: increase attrition for Russia's forces by attacking their supply lines.  But every once in a while I learn something that's just facepalm fodder:

Russian military recruiters are likely allowing Russian volunteers to behave in a lawless and disorderly way during their training and prior to their deployment to Ukraine so as to not discourage the limited number of interested recruits. Russian opposition outlet Verstka interviewed 12 residents of Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod, and compiled social media complaints from locals who discussed volunteers' behavior around the town. Mulino is home to a massive Russian military training area and reportedly is the base for the new 3rd Army Corps.[47] Locals told Verstka that ”several thousand servicemen” arrived in Mulino prior to deploying to Donbas and six groups of unspecified size have already rotated out of training (and presumably into Ukraine) since July.[48] Locals stated that these volunteers are largely between the ages of 40 to 50, which confirms ISW’s previous observations that some recruits appeared to be older than the traditional age for new and raw recruits.[49] Mulino residents reported that volunteers are committing robberies, harassing women, instigating fights, and heavily abusing alcohol after their training days end at seven o'clock at night.[50] Mulino authorities reportedly began patrolling the town as of last week, but residents speculate that the local police are likely releasing arrested volunteers because they are needed for deployment to Ukraine. One resident stated that these volunteers are ”meat” for deployment, while other social media users expressed concern that rowdy and lawless volunteers will harm Russian servicemen at the frontlines.

Verstka’s report likely indicates that Russian military authorities are unwilling to discipline these new recruits, lured into service at great cost and effort. Indiscipline and de facto immunity from discipline during training will very likely translate into a poorly trained and entitled volunteer force that is used to committing crimes and getting away with it. Such behavior among volunteers may lead to conflicts with fellow Russian servicemen, disobedience, alcohol and drug abuse, looting, and potential victimization of Ukrainians in occupied areas. The report also further confirms that Russian forces have deployed some unspecified groups of volunteers to Ukraine after a short training period. The ages of volunteers and reported criminal and addictive behaviors also indicate that Russian military recruiters are scrambling for any volunteers regardless of criminal background, age, or military experience. The negative comments by locals about the recruits can also harm public perception of the Russian Armed Forces by Russians in the future, potentially further reducing the already-low proclivity to serve among Russians.

-- "Russian Parade" of destroyed military hardware continues in Kyiv.  Come see a the metal harvest!
-- Darya Dugina, daughter of Russian nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin, killed in a car bomb intended for the father.  Don't be too sad, she was a Nazi too.
-- Russian partisan group National Republican Army takes responsibility for the attack, says it will revolutionize Russia.  Everyone else: who did you say you were?
-- Ukraine denies all involvement with the attack
-- Russian government blames Ukraine for the bombing, says it is justification to destroy the Ukrainian state and their infernal evil
-- I don't know, it could still be a false flag?
-- If you're interested, here's a brief trip down the Russian nationalist rabbit hole.  The Middle Ages couldn't have happened because of math, and the Protestant Reformation is actually a secret Catholic plot.  That explains everything!
-- Speaking of bad explanations, the FSB (née KGB) already found the person who killed Dugina and whoops she's already out of the country while being supermom, explosions expert, and a secret agent.  And this is why women belong in the kitchen, I guess.

-- Crowds of people hoping to hop a train out of Crimea as the war grows close
-- Russian military, probably: A train station crowded with civilians?  Let us bomb it!  Oh wait, it's one of ours, never mind.
-- Video: How many Russian Generals does it take to open a car door?
-- Image: New Russian advanced attack robot ($3730 on AliExpress)
-- Image: vacationing in Crimea at 45.180317, 33.232232, look at this big antiaircraft truck I saw, Facebook peeps! Content warning: dad bod. 
-- Gazprom needs to shut down Nord Stream 1 pipeline again for "maintenance"
-- Maybe in retrospect it was a bad idea for Germans to let Gazprom own most of the gas storage in Germany.
-- Rail service from Ukraine through Moldova has been restored.
-- Bridge in Kherson gets hit again, reportedly while ammunition was being convoyed across.  Bada boom.  There are reports the road deck collapsed, but no confirmation came today.
-- Ukraine cancels Independence Day celebrations, citing a risk of extremely vicious attacks
-- Turkey's defense minister says the grain deal is a foundation of a permanent peace deal
-- Zelensky says Ukraine will withdraw from peace negotiations if Russia goes forward with trials of the Azovstal defenders
-- Russian diplomat says he does not see any chance of a diplomatic solution in Ukraine
-- Remember back in the early phase of the war, when Emmanuel Macron and others argued that we had to leave Putin an exit to the war, so he wouldn't feel humiliated?  Well, here we are six months into the war, and it looks like humiliation and surrender are the only ways out.
-- Ukrainians have continued their campaign to get other nations to close to Russian tourists, but only Eastern European nations have done so.  I understand how galling it is to watch relatives of invaders having good times across the border, but I don't think a ban is particularly helpful.
-- Ukrainian soldiers in the trenches have received a shipment of British food.  Amnesty International is already working on its next report.
-- Russians accuse Ukrainian partisans of poisoning their food and making soldiers sick.
-- Russian soldiers at the Zaphorizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have symptoms of poisoning -- radiation poisoning.
-- Russian army ran out of MREs/rations months ago, and are now buying Chinese rations.  So, probably botulism poisoning too.
-- Moscow wants a UN Security Council meeting on the situation in the ZNPP tomorrow.  Bring popcorn and butter, the radiation will pop it for you.
-- What air defense doing?  Firing flares from a helicopter, 5m over a tourist beach, apparently
-- Video of "elite" Kadyrovites doing "special training".  Looks like a cross between the first week of Basic and a bunch of drunk weekend militia guys showing off at the gun range.  This is in fact more training than most Russians.