RE: Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II
08-25-2023, 05:38 PM
08-25-2023, 05:38 PM
I have found myself thinking about what happened with the Catalan Company, when the Byzantines started to fear them. The son of the Emperor of the Romans, Michael IX Palaiologos, ordered that the leadership of the mercenary company all be invited to a banquet in Adrianople to be killed. They were killed, and the garrison in Constantinople was attacked. Then the main garrison at Kallipoli (modern Galipoli/Gelibolu) went on its own rampage, killing and looting Greeks at the betrayal. A lot of battles happened, and with eight years had conquered for themselves the Duchy of Athens, as well as Thebes and Thessaly. The Catalonian mercenaries would remain in control for the next eighty years, until they were defeated by the Navarrese Company, whose turn it was to basque in glory.
There was also that time when the condottieri (mercenaries) decided that Cesare Borgia was too cruel, and decided to rebel against him. Borgia waited for the coalition of mercenaries to fall apart, then acted conciliatory. And then had them captured, imprisoned, and strangled.
Russia is a medieval country with medieval problems. By taking out the leadership of the Wagner company, he solved one problem only to create another: a lot of angry Wagners who do not want to fight for the Russian state are now considering fighting against the Russian state. They might be considering that fighting against the state is the only way to survive.
I suspect the situation is more analogous to the Byzantines, because of the byzantine nature of the Russian military, where all orders must come from the top. Wagner PMC was the single most effective military force Russia had. Their offensive in Bakhmut while stupid and costly was the only major victory that Russia has had in over a year. A force of mercenaries was more effective than the entire world's #2 army. They nearly overthrew the government, had they not stupidly stopped. In any case, war... war never changes.
Meanwhile in the actual war, it's looking like there has been a major breakthrough near Robotyne. Mines make a great defense, but once you get through the minefield, you spread out your army behind the lines. And they can't make more lines, since the Azov Sea lies behind. We hope for a rout where Melitopol gets recaptured, but they don't actually need any city -- just a reasonably defensible place where you can have fire control on the GLOC (supply line). Russia only controls one road going into Crimea on the Ukrainian side, and of course the Kerch Bridge. Once you can reasonably prevent anything from passing those two roads, Crimea is encircled. Unless the mighty Russian Navy comes and, oh, whoops, Russian warship fucked itself.
They have 6-8 weeks before Mud Season sets in again, and mines made it a hard operation, but it's been a reasonably successful one. Which is another point I should bring up: I feel like the Mainstream Media has done a terrible job reporting over the past few months. They're looking for soundbite narratives about how things are shifting, when events just aren't moving that fast. Ukraine is not losing. Russia is not winning. This has been true since April 2020 and is still true today. This offensive started with a bit too much enthusiasm, a few too many tanks got wrecked in the process of learning that Russian mine defenses were more effective than last time. Ukraine shifted tactics and still has the momentum. Russia has a thousand kilometers of other fronts to advance on, and hasn't made any progress at all, while Ukraine is slowly gaining, at the cost of too many heroes.
This is kind of a boring narrative, not suitable for The Washington Post and The New York Times. So they publish other ideas. Sources used to publishing military stories are much better (The War Zone, ISW) as well as various Ukrainians outlets (e.g. Ukrainska Pravda).
There was also that time when the condottieri (mercenaries) decided that Cesare Borgia was too cruel, and decided to rebel against him. Borgia waited for the coalition of mercenaries to fall apart, then acted conciliatory. And then had them captured, imprisoned, and strangled.
Russia is a medieval country with medieval problems. By taking out the leadership of the Wagner company, he solved one problem only to create another: a lot of angry Wagners who do not want to fight for the Russian state are now considering fighting against the Russian state. They might be considering that fighting against the state is the only way to survive.
I suspect the situation is more analogous to the Byzantines, because of the byzantine nature of the Russian military, where all orders must come from the top. Wagner PMC was the single most effective military force Russia had. Their offensive in Bakhmut while stupid and costly was the only major victory that Russia has had in over a year. A force of mercenaries was more effective than the entire world's #2 army. They nearly overthrew the government, had they not stupidly stopped. In any case, war... war never changes.
Meanwhile in the actual war, it's looking like there has been a major breakthrough near Robotyne. Mines make a great defense, but once you get through the minefield, you spread out your army behind the lines. And they can't make more lines, since the Azov Sea lies behind. We hope for a rout where Melitopol gets recaptured, but they don't actually need any city -- just a reasonably defensible place where you can have fire control on the GLOC (supply line). Russia only controls one road going into Crimea on the Ukrainian side, and of course the Kerch Bridge. Once you can reasonably prevent anything from passing those two roads, Crimea is encircled. Unless the mighty Russian Navy comes and, oh, whoops, Russian warship fucked itself.
They have 6-8 weeks before Mud Season sets in again, and mines made it a hard operation, but it's been a reasonably successful one. Which is another point I should bring up: I feel like the Mainstream Media has done a terrible job reporting over the past few months. They're looking for soundbite narratives about how things are shifting, when events just aren't moving that fast. Ukraine is not losing. Russia is not winning. This has been true since April 2020 and is still true today. This offensive started with a bit too much enthusiasm, a few too many tanks got wrecked in the process of learning that Russian mine defenses were more effective than last time. Ukraine shifted tactics and still has the momentum. Russia has a thousand kilometers of other fronts to advance on, and hasn't made any progress at all, while Ukraine is slowly gaining, at the cost of too many heroes.
This is kind of a boring narrative, not suitable for The Washington Post and The New York Times. So they publish other ideas. Sources used to publishing military stories are much better (The War Zone, ISW) as well as various Ukrainians outlets (e.g. Ukrainska Pravda).
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto