RE: Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II
01-25-2024, 05:47 AM
01-25-2024, 05:47 AM
I must admit I got some Ukraine fatigue, and haven't found a lot of time to post updates here. But I just thought I should mention this one:
Putin stokes tensions with US, declares 1867 sale of Alaska 'illegal'. If you recall, this is how things started with Crimea.
The war has pretty much devolved to positional warfare, which you should read as resembling the Great War. Fortified lines, no way easy way to break through. The winter has been essentially a stalemate. The second Battle of Avdiivka continues, with the Russian's human wave attacks for some reason not working against armor and a giant slag pile. The Russians have recently seen some progress and have advanced a few blocks here, at the cost of at least 40,000 men and a wide range of equipment.
There was also the video of two Ukrainian personnel carriers taking out a Russian main battle tank which massively outgunned them. Apparently the drivers learned to blind the tank's optics from playing War Thunder, the video game most widely known for having players that constantly leak classified military documents while discussing the game's realism. This is also on theme where Western equipment overperforms and Russian equipment underperforms, if it operates at all.
The US Congress continues to be barely functional, but Europe is providing more aid. Having Donald Tusk as PM of Poland will help Ukraine -- or at least it will help my sanity. France is sending 50 guided bombs a month. Even Italy is sending arms while having a right-populist coalition running things.
Russians say that Ukranians shot down a plane carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs. At least one of the soldiers on the list of those killed was previously exchanged with Ukraine and is quite alive and well.
We're in basically the stalemate we expected: superior manpower of Russia continues to be a threat, but not enough to surpass superior equipment and training of Ukranians. Losses are bad on both sides. Without sending more arms, Ukraine can lose; with more arms, Ukraine can win. Russia has still already lost this war, both in terms of prestige, reputation of its arms, killed off the most experienced parts of its army (and weirdly also navy), and is still suffering under sanctions. The sanctions are finally starting to hurt -- this is the clock that Putin is playing against. Once domestic industries run out of key components, things will get worse and worse.
Also, drones, rockets, and sabotage are hurting industries on both sides. Lots of stuff catching on fire due to smoking Ivans. How will Russia rebuild without global economic support? And what will they have to give to China in order to get basic industry from their ally of last resort? This is, incidentally, the same damn lesson of the world wars: the factories you lose are worth more than any land and population you could gain by winning a war of conquest. It sucks that it's edging closer to total war, but that's what happens when we don't send our allies what they need from the beginning.
Putin stokes tensions with US, declares 1867 sale of Alaska 'illegal'. If you recall, this is how things started with Crimea.
The war has pretty much devolved to positional warfare, which you should read as resembling the Great War. Fortified lines, no way easy way to break through. The winter has been essentially a stalemate. The second Battle of Avdiivka continues, with the Russian's human wave attacks for some reason not working against armor and a giant slag pile. The Russians have recently seen some progress and have advanced a few blocks here, at the cost of at least 40,000 men and a wide range of equipment.
There was also the video of two Ukrainian personnel carriers taking out a Russian main battle tank which massively outgunned them. Apparently the drivers learned to blind the tank's optics from playing War Thunder, the video game most widely known for having players that constantly leak classified military documents while discussing the game's realism. This is also on theme where Western equipment overperforms and Russian equipment underperforms, if it operates at all.
The US Congress continues to be barely functional, but Europe is providing more aid. Having Donald Tusk as PM of Poland will help Ukraine -- or at least it will help my sanity. France is sending 50 guided bombs a month. Even Italy is sending arms while having a right-populist coalition running things.
Russians say that Ukranians shot down a plane carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs. At least one of the soldiers on the list of those killed was previously exchanged with Ukraine and is quite alive and well.
We're in basically the stalemate we expected: superior manpower of Russia continues to be a threat, but not enough to surpass superior equipment and training of Ukranians. Losses are bad on both sides. Without sending more arms, Ukraine can lose; with more arms, Ukraine can win. Russia has still already lost this war, both in terms of prestige, reputation of its arms, killed off the most experienced parts of its army (and weirdly also navy), and is still suffering under sanctions. The sanctions are finally starting to hurt -- this is the clock that Putin is playing against. Once domestic industries run out of key components, things will get worse and worse.
Also, drones, rockets, and sabotage are hurting industries on both sides. Lots of stuff catching on fire due to smoking Ivans. How will Russia rebuild without global economic support? And what will they have to give to China in order to get basic industry from their ally of last resort? This is, incidentally, the same damn lesson of the world wars: the factories you lose are worth more than any land and population you could gain by winning a war of conquest. It sucks that it's edging closer to total war, but that's what happens when we don't send our allies what they need from the beginning.
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto