Kim Jong Il was Terminally Ill

[ECSNorway]

Kim Jong Il, you ARE the Weakest Link, GOOD-BYE.
http://www.reuters.com/ar...th-idUSTRE7BI05B20111219
Kim Jong Il, dictator of North Korea, has departed this earth forever. Don't forget to wave  good-bye to him as you pass!
--
Sucrose Octanitrate.
Proof positive that with sufficient motivation, you can make anything explode.

[Black Aeronaut]

I just hope that Kin Jong Un's 'Advisors' are the real deal and that Un himself honestly wants only what's best for the country.

[Jinx999]

What happens next us completely up in the air from what can be told by us outside NK.
What does Un want? What do his generals want? Can he hold onto his position of Commie God King? How much do any of them understand the outside world?

[ordnance11]

I just hope that Kin Jong Un's 'Advisors' are the real deal and that Un himself honestly wants only what's best for the country.

Why would the top want to change a system that has worked very well for them, BA? The only way the place would change would be a revolution, but since every kid had been indoctrinated from the start to revere the leader, whoever he might be, fat chance of that happening.
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[Acyl]

I work as a research analyst at an Asian think-tank. When Kim rolled over, we got a bunch of calls from media - CNBC, Channel NewsAsia, newspapers, etc. - asking for comments and analysis, if we could send someone for a TV spot, so on. This is usually the type of thing we jump all over. C'mon, we're a think tank, we survive on this stuff.

In this instance, we've politely turned down all requests. Largely because, well, we have nothing useful to say. Nobody really knows what's going on in North Korea, not even the experts. Is the regime going to be stable? Are they gonna become more belligerent towards their enemies as a way of deflecting attention from internal problems? Is the new guy gonna actually hold power, or just be a puppet of his aunt and uncle? Damn if I know. Damn if anyone here knows.

The difficulty is one way or another people are bracing for the worst; South Korea's on military alert, Japan's in crisis planning. All we've got is uncertainty. That's worrying in and of itself.

Personally - and I have absolutely zilch to back this up - I don't think North Korea's gonna implode on itself or anything. But it's anyone's guess how they'll behave going forward, both in terms of external and internal policy. On the subject of reform:-

Here's a comparison - to another Asian country. Couple weeks ago, I got a chance to speak to some government folks from Myanmar (or Burma, if you prefer). Nobody denies that the reforms there are top-down, driven by the country's elites. 

But the sentiment is that the folks at the top in Myanmar...genuinely want reform - because they're genuinely interested in raising living standards, and that's the way to go. They're also worried about Arab Spring-style protests. The more cynical elements in leadership...still fear their country being isolated. And they see Asian communist countries like China and Vietnam as good examples - they want that kind of success too.

However, the Myanmar official I spoke to also refused to comment, at all, on how their buddies over in North Korea might jump. Because, hell, they just don't know. The above factors are at work in Myanmar, and make total sense. But who knows how Pyongyang thinks?
-- Acyl

[Black Aeronaut]

Well said, Acyl.

Perhaps then this is not the time to be acting in caution, but to be coming forth with open hands?

[Rev Dark]

Analogy is suspect but here goes.
Kim Jong Il and his son and current heir remind me strongly of Septimus Severus and later Caracalla.  In both cases, they cleaved to a very strong maxim; if they ensure that the army is paid; they can get away with pretty much anything (mind the soliders and ignore everyone else).  Likewise the issue of Kim's other issue also has parallels, though there is a stronger mandate for Un (Caracalla and Geta were to share the role of Emperor.)
If there is to be instability it will come from an internal non-military source; though it will likely manifest as one of the other Jong-spawn convincing a portion of the military to shift their alliance to him.
I would not be surprised if the other brothers follow their father in the next 18 months.

[ordnance11]

A another analogy would be the Fujiwara regency. Un would be the public face while his relatives and their cronies would be powers behind the scenes. His other half brothers would probably kept isolated in the provinces and watched. Keeping some of them alive would be good insurance policy in the event of Un's untimely death...planned or otherwise.
I suspect this arrangement would be stable for the next decade. The real question would be what whould happen when Un decides to take power for real. 
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[ordnance11]

I had always wondered from the beginning what the worldview of the North Koreans were. What explained their actions from the Pueblo incident to the sinking of that south Korean naval vessel.? In a nutshell it is this:

The Korean people are too pure blooded, and
therefore too virtuous, to survive in this evil world without a great
parental leader.

A nation whose ideology has a lot in common with World War II imperial Japan and nazi Germany. So I fear the only way regime change would happen if there is either a top down revolution or what happened to Japan and Germany in WWII.
I found a link of the foreword from the book "The Cleanest Race" . I'm going to have to buy this book.
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[ECSNorway]

Just read Ord's link. That is some scary stuff.
--
Sucrose Octanitrate.
Proof positive that with sufficient motivation, you can make anything explode.

[Black Aeronaut]

I find this particular paragraph to be rather enlightening.

The official worldview is not set out coherently in the leaders'
writings. These are more often praised than read. So-called Juche
Thought functions at most as an imposing row of book-spines, a prop in
the personality cult. (A good way to embarrass one's minders in the DPRK
is to ask them to explain it.) Unlike Soviet citizens under Stalin, or
Chinese under Mao, North Koreans learn more about their leaders than
from them. It is not in ideological treatises but in the more
mass-oriented domestic propaganda that the official worldview is
expressed most clearly and unselfconsciously. I stress the word
domestic. Too many observers wrongly assume that the (North) Korean
Central News Agency's English-language releases reflect the same sort of
propaganda that the home audience gets. In fact there are significant
differences. For example, where the DPRK presents itself to the outside
world as a misunderstood country seeking integration into the
international community, it presents itself to its own citizens (as I
will show later) as a rogue state that breaks agreements with impunity,
dictates conditions to groveling U.N. officials, and keeps its enemies
in constant fear of ballistic retribution. Generally speaking the
following rule of thumb applies: the less accessible a propaganda outlet
is to the outside world, the blunter and more belligerent it will be in
its expression of the racist orthodoxy.

Scary stuff indeed.
EDIT:
Having read the rest of the article about the book and taking a moment to stew on it, I can say without any qualm that the North Korean Problem is here to stay, no matter how many "Great Leaders" come and go.  I think that what is most frightening about these revelations is that North Korea is what Nazi Germany might have become if they had taken the isolationist route and sat and stewed for half-a-century.  There is not going to be a peaceful end with this regime or the personality cults of its leaders, past and present.  On the face of our Earth, these people will be like cancer, quietly festering and hoping for a chance to metastasize.  Ideally, they hope to do so by fomenting a socialist revolution, preferably in South Korea.  Realistically, they'll just start something that will end badly for anyone that gets involved.
And when it does happen... we can probably look forward to an insurgency that makes Iraq/Afghanistan/Pakistan look like a picnic in the park by comparison.

[CattyNebulart]

During the second world war America knew how to deal with an insurgency, and the answer is manpower. There should be a mandatory draft each time the US enters a war, that way the military has both the manpower it needs and politicians won't be so eager to declare war.
E: "Did they... did they just endorse the combination of the JSDF and US Army by showing them as two lesbian lolicons moving in together and holding hands and talking about how 'intimate' they were?"
B: "Have you forgotten so soon? They're phasing out Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

[Jinx999]

Ouch. Comparitively poorly trained and resentful "constabulary" force combined with an "insurgency" hidden in the civilian population is a recipe for abuse of all kinds.

[Black Aeronaut]

Yeah, the only way to truly and effectively deal with an insurgency is to win over the people so completely that they start openly reporting any and all suspicious activity. And that just won't happen with the North Koreans, I'm afraid.

Somebody get the Spirit of Derek Bacon on the line. We need a copy of his book, So You're Not The Master Race. :p

[ordnance11]

Before we win them over, we have to blast them back to the stone age, just to shake them out of their mental conditioning. Or have their "supreme leader" declare unconditional surrender. Just like Hirohito did.
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[Sofaspud]

When other countries -- or the UN, for example -- agree that we "have to blast them back to the stone age", then I'd be on-board with that.  Until then, I don't want to be the country (or the individual) espousing such a view.  America has enough bad press as-is.  I love my country; please don't make me feel ashamed of her.

And the situation is significantly different from Japan's.  Their populace was educated and aware of the outside world; they just wanted nothing to do with it.

North Korea, on the other hand, has a populace that on the whole has no idea what goes on outside their borders, save for what the propaganda machine distills -- and that is, let us say, heavily slanted.  They are not currently capable as a group of believing anything but the worst about any Western influences, and what they already believe is so badly skewed as to be more fantasy than reality.

In short: the Japanese were (at the time) fanatical, but they were capable of being rational, and when faced with the choice of backing down or fighting to the last man, they made the rational decision.  The North Koreans are not at this time capable of making the rational decision, even if they were "blast[ed] back to the stone age".

Information is power, and they don't have any.  So their only reaction basis is fear.  And fear precludes rationality every time.

In shorter: they need education and experience with the rest of the world, not bombs.

--sofaspud
--"Listening to your kid is the audio equivalent of a Salvador Dali painting, Spud." --OpMegs

[ECSNorway]

Spud: They're not going to GET any of that until the current regime is removed, is the problem.

Where is Radio Free America when you need them....
--
Sucrose Octanitrate.
Proof positive that with sufficient motivation, you can make anything explode.

[Black Aeronaut]

Wouldn't work. They'll just go around confiscating all the wireless stuff and switch to land lines. Anything that's remote enough that landlines will be a hassle will need repeater towers anyhow, and those can be turned off with a throw of the switch at a moment's notice (provided they're manned, anyhow).

We could start dropping pallets with radios and food on them, but they'd take that as an act of war. On top of that, they'll tell their people that the food is poisoned and that the radios are really bombs before they go around confiscating everything. *sighs*
EDIT: Forgot to mention.  Even with something like Radio Free America going on full tilt, you have to remember that these are a very prideful and self-reliant people.  In fact, they value self-reliance over just about everything else, up to and including their own survival (or at least it seems this way).  North Koreans that 'flee' the country usually come back... with their pockets full of Chinese money they made working in factories or what-have-you on the other side of the border.  (Can't tell me that the Chinese money isn't good there, either - they're practically the only country that trades with them anymore!)
Simply telling them that we're willing to help them isn't gonna push the right kinds of buttons.  Instead we tell them something else.  There is opportunity in the rest of the world, but if they want access to it they need to fight their own regime for it.  That ought to appeal to their sense of self-reliance.

[Rod.H]

RoA would work - heck any radio broadcast would - presuming that a radio receiver in North Korea could pick it up. For itsn't so that all radios there (besides a select few) are limited by design to only the NK-Gov authorised channels.

[robkelk]

And there are orbital satellites that are very good at broadcasting radio signals. Two questions:

1) How many working radios are there in North Korea?

2) Will the Chinese be willing to have their radio operations along their border with North Korea affected this way?
--
Rob Kelk
"Governments have no right to question the loyalty of those who oppose
them. Adversaries remain citizens of the same state, common subjects of
the same sovereign, servants of the same law."

- Michael Ignatieff, addressing Stanford University in 2012

[CattyNebulart]

A satellite wouldn't have the power to compete with land based radio stations thanks to the wonder of the inverse square law. On the other hand south Korea could since they are close by, but they are likely worried about the reaction from the north.
E: "Did they... did they just endorse the combination of the JSDF and US Army by showing them as two lesbian lolicons moving in together and holding hands and talking about how 'intimate' they were?"
B: "Have you forgotten so soon? They're phasing out Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

[Black Aeronaut]

A satellite wouldn't have the power to compete with land based radio stations thanks to the wonder of the inverse square law. On the other hand south Korea could since they are close by, but they are likely worried about the reaction from the north.

Of course they're worried.  If the North Koreans sink ships and shell towns just out of spite, then I can only imagine what they'd do if actually provoked.