Tail Wagging The Dog Scenaro

[ordnance11]

Would Trump go for a short glorious war?
Trump is looking for a curb stomp. Terrorists aren't going to cut it. More likely scenario are the North Koreans. There is enough military justification to do is, but has he considered the fallout?
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[LynnInDenver]

Sure, if you take in the information in a vacuum, it might actually be a curb stomp. Once you take in the international relations situation it would cause, it would ultimately be anything BUT a curb stomp. Unfortunately, there's already evidence that DT only prefers information that is effectively provided in a vacuum, and the administration's treatment of the State Department shows that international relations are so far down priority chain as to be non-existent.

The fallout wouldn't be a military invasion of us, but I can imagine it would involve accelerating our slide into irrelevancy through various methods. And it would provide additional ammunition for arguments against democracy as a government method. "See, not only did they elect someone who was not in the interest of being for the people, they elected someone who was wanting war for the glory of it."
--

"You know how parents tell you everything's going to fine, but you know they're lying to make you feel better? Everything's going to be fine." - The Doctor

[robkelk]

My prediction: If North Korea gets into a war with "the west", Hiroshima will be nuked again. (We know NK has nuclear weapons, and I seriously doubt they wouldn't use them.)

There's no glory in that.

So, yeah, there would be fallout - radioactive fallout. There would be political fallout, too.
--
Rob Kelk
"Governments have no right to question the loyalty of those who oppose
them. Adversaries remain citizens of the same state, common subjects of
the same sovereign, servants of the same law."

- Michael Ignatieff, addressing Stanford University in 2012

[ordnance11]

More like Tokyo, but a city is a city.
As long as DT can crow "We Won!" and american causalities can be justified, he'll take it as a good thing. Of course when the fallout (radioactive and political) does come, he'll blame it on the generals and the incompetents of the various departments (who he hired).
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[robkelk]

More like Tokyo, but a city is a city.

There's no reason to suppose that NK has only one nuke.

Also, symbolism.

Besides, Hiroshima is slightly closer to NK than Tokyo is.
--
Rob Kelk
"Governments have no right to question the loyalty of those who oppose
them. Adversaries remain citizens of the same state, common subjects of
the same sovereign, servants of the same law."

- Michael Ignatieff, addressing Stanford University in 2012

[ordnance11]

More like how many functioning mobile missile systems do they have left after the missile and bomb strikes are done. They only need one. The NK's don't have mobile or sea based ICBM's at the moment. 200 mile or IRBM's oth..
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[Dartz]

I think we're into hyerbole here. The idea that a North Korean missile might actually reach a target that far, thus far, seems laughable. You almost hope they woul fire one off, because it's pretty much guaranteed to malfunction somewhere along they way and do nothing more than irradiate some fish.

And that's one less kiloton warhead that can be used against South Korea.

The big question with nuclear war in North Korea is how to respond in a way that doesn't even slightly risk bringing China in. Because then its all into the guts of World War III.

In a weird sort of way, it almost works in Noth Korea's favour to try pop one off because a 'sane' US administration would have to worry about China's reaction, so it can afford to go over the edge without loosing too much and maybe understanding that the world knows that. America has to wonder about what the rest of the world thinks about it before creating Lake Pyongyang.
________________________________
--m(^0^)m-- Wot, no sig?

[ordnance11]

Dartz wrote:

---

I think we're into hyerbole here. The idea that a North Korean missile might actually reach a target that far, thus far, seems laughable. You almost hope they woul fire one off, because it's pretty much guaranteed to malfunction somewhere along they way and do nothing more than irradiate some fish.

And that's one less kiloton warhead that can be used against South Korea.

The big question with nuclear war in North Korea is how to respond in a way that doesn't even slightly risk bringing China in. Because then its all into the guts of World War III.

In a weird sort of way, it almost works in Noth Korea's favour to try pop one off because a 'sane' US administration would have to worry about China's reaction, so it can afford to go over the edge without loosing too much and maybe understanding that the world knows that. America has to wonder about what the rest of the world thinks about it before creating Lake Pyongyang.

Actually it's case of what do the NK's have left to lose if they do pop one off and it lands in either Seoul, Tokyo or in Guam (in the case of an IRBM). The regime collapses and refugees pour into China. And no more Kim dictatorship. Hyperbole? I call it worse case planning. Bush II did the same thing (kicked off a war) for manufactured reasons. Trump doesn't have to manufacture an excuse to go bomb the NK's into the stone age. The NK regime is providing it.
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[khagler]

I've been saying for years that it's dangerous for there to be a whole division of Imperial Stormtroopers sitting right on the North Korean border where they can start a war the instant the God-Emperor decides his poll numbers need a boost. The solution is for South Korea to declare independence and evict the Imperial forces, thus removing the need for China to prop up North Korea as a buffer. I doubt that will actually happen, but the situation will resolve itself eventually when the current Evil Empire collapses. I expect in 40 or 50 years the idea of Korea fighting itself will seem as strange as the idea of Germany fighting itself would be to a teenager today.

[Black Aeronaut]

Dude, China actually WANTS the buffer. Why do you think they put up with so much bullshit? North Korea has been nothing but a thorn in China's side ever since The Great Leader passed away (and, may I add, is worshipped like a god in death - eerily similar to the Pharohs of Egypt, except everyone knows where his tomb is). The only reason they keep propping up the DPRK is because they don't want a Westernized Asian nation right on their doorstep.

I simply wonder at why on Earth they haven't decided to 'pacify' the 'Rogue Elements' in the DPRK and 'allow free elections' so a 'new government' can be implemented. Seriously, while it might be messy at first, if they could just get rid of the subversives in the DPRK and implement a government more like their own, then there'd be a lot less acrimony and a lot more of what everyone wants: trade and travel between North and South Korea.

[ordnance11]

Black Aeronaut wrote:

---

Dude, China actually WANTS the buffer. Why do you think they put up with so much bullshit? North Korea has been nothing but a thorn in China's side ever since The Great Leader passed away (and, may I add, is worshipped like a god in death - eerily similar to the Pharohs of Egypt, except everyone knows where his tomb is). The only reason they keep propping up the DPRK is because they don't want a Westernized Asian nation right on their doorstep.

I simply wonder at why on Earth they haven't decided to 'pacify' the 'Rogue Elements' in the DPRK and 'allow free elections' so a 'new government' can be implemented. Seriously, while it might be messy at first, if they could just get rid of the subversives in the DPRK and implement a government more like their own, then there'd be a lot less acrimony and a lot more of what everyone wants: trade and travel between North and South Korea.

The last time the Chicoms decided to pacify another nation in recent memory was Vietnam. It was a wash. Whether the PRC has the expertise to wage a successful offensive is unknown. 
  
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[ordnance11]

Huh, didn't expect Syria to be a possible scenario. There is no upside to it. I partly blame Tillerson for it when said earlier it's up to the syrians to determine is Assad stays or gos. Not the last time a US administration said something that a dictator took as saying "Yes, you can do what you want" and it won't be the last.
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[robkelk]

Huh, didn't expect Syria to be a possible scenario. There is no upside to it.

There's one big "upside" - Syria can't hit the West back.

(Unless one counts Turkey as part of the West, but Turkey is used to being disliked by Syria.)
--
Rob Kelk
"Governments have no right to question the loyalty of those who oppose
them. Adversaries remain citizens of the same state, common subjects of
the same sovereign, servants of the same law."

- Michael Ignatieff, addressing Stanford University in 2012

[ordnance11]

robkelk wrote:

---

ordnance11 wrote:

---

Huh, didn't expect Syria to be a possible scenario. There is no upside to it.

There's one big "upside" - Syria can't hit the West back.

(Unless one counts Turkey as part of the West, but Turkey is used to being disliked by Syria.)

The Syrians (with Russian help) can target aircraft providing combat support in Mosul or targeting ISIS positions in Syria. The Iranians might end up doing something. It also does not help that the 2nd and third level positions in all agencies are not filled yet. The risk of escalation is there. Add Trump's personality into the mix...
  
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[Jinx999]

It actually seems to be a measured and sensible response with a broad degree of international support (except Russia, of course).
Which is NOT what I expected from Trump.

[Spoilsport]

Except for the quiet consultation with the Russians (assuring they wouldn't be caught in it), the Russians get to eat their cake and still have it. Hells, I would not be surprised to learn the target was pre-selected, waiting for this exact circumstance by the previous administration (who had no trouble shooting missiles at select targets.) Someone puts a present with a pretty bow on it in front of Trump, what are the chances he'd open it?

[Labster]

As a liberal, I'm not really sure how to respond.  I don't really want to go to war in Syria, and the attack was probably unconstitutional.  But it was a minor attack, really.  It could be interesting to goad Trump into brinkmanship against Putin, and maybe save some Syrians.
The best reaction came from the California Legislature, in which both houses approved a gasoline tax increase hours after the Syria attack.  Nothing is quite like 59 Tomahawks to provide cover fire for political maneuvers.  They even got a Republican vote by throwing $400M in rail and roads at his district.
-- ∇×V

[ordnance11]

Well, the air base is back in business. Why the ammo storage unit or the runway itself not target? Not this point, we may end up having military action in:

1. Syria
2. Irag
3. Afghanistan
4. North Korea

During Trump's tenure. I'm expecting the aftermath to go sour.
 
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[DHBirr]

Pour moi, I'm fascinated by the fact that attacking Syria is what's caused some of Trump's base to already go sour on him.  "This is not what we voted for" and "I'm off the Trump Train," lines like that.  Meanwhile, it's made even some liberals praise him.  As one reader commented, though, 

It's a very, very bad idea to praise Trump for using weapons. A narcissist like Trump will keep doing things that bring him positive attention, praise, and improved ratings. Next stop: World War 3.

John Oliver said much the same thing.
-----
Big Brother is watching you.  And damn, you are so bloody BORING.

[Bob Schroeck]

Add to that orders sent to the American ships near North Korea to get closer. Trump's trying to prod someone into an attack he can use to justify that short glorious war.
-- Bob
---------
Then the horns kicked in...
...and my shoes began to squeak.

[ordnance11]

Just hope it doesn't result in me being at ground zero. That would suck. Bigly
__________________
Into terror!,  Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell

[Black Aeronaut]

DHBirr wrote:

---

Pour moi, I'm fascinated by the fact that attacking Syria is what's caused some of Trump's base to already go sour on him.  "This is not what we voted for" and "I'm off the Trump Train," lines like that.  Meanwhile, it's made even some liberals praise him.  As one reader commented, though, 

It's a very, very bad idea to praise Trump for using weapons. A narcissist like Trump will keep doing things that bring him positive attention, praise, and improved ratings. Next stop: World War 3.

John Oliver said much the same thing.

I'm very lukewarm on it myself.
On one hand, I feel the response was appropriate - this is something that Obama should have done earlier.  However, I feel that it should have been a much harder strike.  If that was indeed the airbase that they were launching chemical weapon strikes from, then it should have been turned into a crater.

Also, this was originally a plan that the Obama administration came up with.  I'm not crediting Trump for a damn thing.  All he did was go, "Fuck 'em up."  Mad Dog Matis delivered.

[robkelk]

Upon the showing of the flags that is the annual joint US-Japan naval exercise, I offer two stories:

* North Korea says it's ready to strike U.S. aircraft carrier
* 'Mistakes happen': How 'miscalculation' could spark a U.S.-North Korea conflict
--
Rob Kelk
"Governments have no right to question the loyalty of those who oppose
them. Adversaries remain citizens of the same state, common subjects of
the same sovereign, servants of the same law."

- Michael Ignatieff, addressing Stanford University in 2012